NBA games

CLE @ MIL

NBA Fiserv Forum ·Final
116–126
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CLE28232837116
MIL32293233126

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIL) / 10 (CLE) games this season
CLE away
home MIL
16% 84%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Donovan Mitchell S 39 23 7 8
Jarrett Allen S 32 21 12 5
Max Strus S 34 14 4 2
Georges Niang 21 14 4 2
Sam Merrill 27 12 2 3
Isaac Okoro S 24 10 1 0
Caris LeVert 28 9 4 4
Dean Wade S 23 6 5 0
Damian Jones 10 5 0 2
Craig Porter Jr. 1 2 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Giannis Antetokounmpo S 35 35 18 10
Damian Lillard S 35 28 1 4
Khris Middleton S 32 24 5 5
Malik Beasley S 28 9 1 1
Brook Lopez S 35 8 9 3
Bobby Portis 25 8 6 0
Pat Connaughton 17 6 1 0
Cameron Payne 13 5 2 0
Jae Crowder 18 3 3 1
Robin Lopez 1 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Khris Middleton · Layup (2 pts) · 11:25 Q1
"Khris Middleton makes 1-foot layup (Brook Lopez assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Damian Lillard MIL
14%
2 Donovan Mitchell CLE
14%
3 Jarrett Allen CLE
13%
4 Khris Middleton MIL
12%
5 Max Strus CLE
10%
6 Brook Lopez MIL
9%
7 Isaac Okoro CLE
8%
8 Malik Beasley MIL
7%
9 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL
7%
10 Dean Wade CLE
5%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
17%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
17%
Jumper
43%
Layup
18%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL 31.8 12.3 8.6
2 Donovan Mitchell CLE 28.3 5.0 7.7
3 Damian Lillard MIL 23.8 4.0 6.8
4 Jarrett Allen CLE 19.6 11.5 4.0
5 Caris LeVert CLE 18.9 3.4 5.1
6 Khris Middleton MIL 16.8 3.6 5.6
7 Brook Lopez MIL 13.8 6.6 2.5
8 Sam Merrill CLE 11.8 3.6 2.8
9 Georges Niang CLE 11.3 4.2 1.6
10 Max Strus CLE 10.8 4.0 3.5
11 Malik Beasley MIL 10.6 3.1 1.5
12 Bobby Portis MIL 10.6 5.6 0.9
13 Isaac Okoro CLE 10.4 3.3 2.0
14 Craig Porter Jr. CLE 8.7 3.7 3.5
15 Jae Crowder MIL 7.9 3.0 1.3
16 Dean Wade CLE 6.4 3.3 1.3
17 Pat Connaughton MIL 5.8 2.2 1.2
18 Tristan Thompson CLE 5.3 4.7 1.7
19 Cameron Payne MIL 4.9 0.8 1.4
20 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 4.7 3.4 1.0
21 Damian Jones CLE 3.4 1.5 0.6
22 AJ Green MIL 2.9 0.8 0.5
23 Marques Bolden MIL 2.3 2.7 0.6
24 Pete Nance CLE 2.1 1.1 0.3
25 Robin Lopez MIL 1.1 0.3 0.2
26 Thanasis Antetokounmpo MIL 1.0 0.7 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.