NBA games

POR @ HOU

NBA Toyota Center (Houston) ·Final
137–131
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q5T
POR3027412613137
HOU313233287131

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (HOU) / 10 (POR) games this season
POR away
home HOU
27% 73%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anfernee Simons S 41 33 6 5
Jerami Grant S 43 21 5 9
Malcolm Brogdon S 41 19 2 6
Deandre Ayton S 41 18 17 3
Matisse Thybulle 22 13 4 1
Scoot Henderson 24 11 1 3
Jabari Walker S 24 9 7 1
Duop Reath 12 9 2 2
Toumani Camara 17 4 4 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Alperen Sengun S 40 30 10 8
Jalen Green S 39 29 0 3
Fred VanVleet S 46 18 6 7
Dillon Brooks S 32 14 4 4
Aaron Holiday 30 12 3 2
Cam Whitmore 14 12 4 0
Amen Thompson 14 6 3 2
Jock Landale 13 6 3 2
Jeff Green S 38 4 4 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Alperen Sengun · Dunk (2 pts) · 10:34 Q1
"Alperen Sengun makes 4-foot dunk (Fred VanVleet assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Alperen Sengun HOU
13%
2 Jalen Green HOU
10%
3 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU
9%
4 Jerami Grant POR
9%
5 Deandre Ayton POR
9%
6 Amen Thompson HOU
8%
7 Anfernee Simons POR
8%
8 Malcolm Brogdon POR
7%
9 Dillon Brooks HOU
7%
10 Jabari Walker POR
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
4%
Dunk
14%
Free Throw
15%
Jumper
27%
Layup
40%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Alperen Sengun HOU 24.7 10.7 5.4
2 Jerami Grant POR 20.4 4.0 2.5
3 Anfernee Simons POR 20.3 4.1 5.0
4 Fred VanVleet HOU 18.8 4.0 8.6
5 Jalen Green HOU 18.2 4.6 4.1
6 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 15.2 8.9 1.7
7 Scoot Henderson POR 15.0 3.8 5.1
8 Malcolm Brogdon POR 13.9 3.8 4.6
9 Deandre Ayton POR 13.2 10.3 1.7
10 Dillon Brooks HOU 13.2 3.3 1.7
11 Duop Reath POR 12.9 6.5 2.0
12 Jabari Walker POR 12.4 8.8 1.6
13 Cam Whitmore HOU 10.4 4.0 1.2
14 Toumani Camara POR 7.3 4.9 1.5
15 Amen Thompson HOU 6.8 5.0 2.2
16 Jeff Green HOU 6.5 2.3 1.0
17 Kris Murray POR 5.8 2.2 1.2
18 Matisse Thybulle POR 5.4 2.4 1.2
19 Aaron Holiday HOU 5.0 1.6 1.2
20 Nate Williams HOU 4.6 1.9 0.7
21 Rayan Rupert POR 4.2 2.0 1.1
22 Ibou Badji POR 3.6 3.8 0.9
23 Jermaine Samuels Jr. HOU 3.5 2.2 0.9
24 Nate Hinton HOU 3.5 1.6 0.7
25 Jock Landale HOU 3.0 2.4 0.6
26 Boban Marjanovic HOU 2.4 2.2 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.