NBA games

OKC @ SA

NBA Frost Bank Center ·Final
140–114
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
OKC35283740140
SA28242438114

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SA) / 10 (OKC) games this season
OKC away
home SA
50% 50%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 29 32 6 10
Aaron Wiggins 19 22 3 1
Chet Holmgren S 30 17 9 4
Cason Wallace 23 13 3 4
Jalen Williams S 29 13 5 7
Josh Giddey S 22 12 8 4
Isaiah Joe 13 9 1 0
Kenrich Williams 10 7 3 0
Jaylin Williams 11 6 4 0
Davis Bertans 5 3 0 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Victor Wembanyama S 28 24 12 4
Devin Vassell S 34 21 5 7
Blake Wesley S 28 12 4 6
Malaki Branham 28 11 3 2
Zach Collins 17 10 3 2
Cedi Osman 14 9 0 0
Doug McDermott 17 8 1 3
Keldon Johnson 19 7 0 1
Sandro Mamukelashvili 5 4 1 0
Julian Champagnie S 21 3 2 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jalen Williams · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:47 Q1
"Jalen Williams makes 25-foot three point jumper (Chet Holmgren assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Williams OKC
15%
2 Devin Vassell SA
13%
3 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
12%
4 Chet Holmgren OKC
12%
5 Victor Wembanyama SA
11%
6 Jeremy Sochan SA
11%
7 Josh Giddey OKC
9%
8 Julian Champagnie SA
8%
9 Luguentz Dort OKC
8%
10 Keldon Johnson SA
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
20%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
11%
Jumper
36%
Layup
26%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 31.4 5.2 6.9
2 Victor Wembanyama SA 23.8 9.4 3.4
3 Jalen Williams OKC 22.6 5.3 6.3
4 Devin Vassell SA 19.2 3.9 5.1
5 Chet Holmgren OKC 17.6 6.8 3.4
6 Keldon Johnson SA 14.9 4.4 2.1
7 Jeremy Sochan SA 14.6 6.3 4.0
8 Luguentz Dort OKC 12.3 3.7 1.7
9 Zach Collins SA 11.6 5.5 2.8
10 Josh Giddey OKC 11.1 6.8 5.0
11 Isaiah Joe OKC 7.6 3.0 1.7
12 Julian Champagnie SA 7.3 2.9 1.5
13 Cedi Osman SA 6.6 3.0 1.7
14 Cason Wallace OKC 6.3 3.2 1.1
15 Doug McDermott SA 6.1 1.3 0.9
16 Aaron Wiggins OKC 6.0 2.2 1.2
17 Kenrich Williams OKC 4.9 3.3 1.2
18 Malaki Branham SA 4.8 1.0 1.1
19 Blake Wesley SA 4.7 1.7 1.6
20 Vasilije Micic OKC 4.6 1.4 1.8
21 Jaylin Williams OKC 4.1 2.5 1.1
22 Davis Bertans OKC 4.0 1.7 0.8
23 Keyontae Johnson OKC 3.6 1.5 0.8
24 Devonte' Graham SA 3.0 1.1 1.4
25 Aleksej Pokusevski OKC 2.6 1.2 0.8
26 Sandro Mamukelashvili SA 2.3 1.7 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.