NBA games

MEM @ MIA

NBA Kaseya Center ·Final
105–96
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MEM21283323105
MIA2220262896

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIA) / 10 (MEM) games this season
MEM away
home MIA
38% 62%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Vince Williams Jr. S 33 25 5 4
GG Jackson 26 17 4 2
Scotty Pippen Jr. 24 15 6 6
Jaren Jackson Jr. S 35 15 6 3
John Konchar S 31 11 10 2
David Roddy S 32 10 3 4
Jacob Gilyard S 24 6 0 7
Xavier Tillman 18 6 4 1
Ziaire Williams 17 0 6 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyler Herro S 38 18 6 3
Jimmy Butler III S 35 15 4 3
Bam Adebayo S 40 15 15 6
Caleb Martin 29 15 4 1
Terry Rozier 29 9 4 5
Josh Richardson S 18 9 3 2
Haywood Highsmith S 24 8 4 1
Duncan Robinson 16 7 3 0
Thomas Bryant 7 0 0 0
Kevin Love 5 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jimmy Butler III · Layup (2 pts) · 11:22 Q1
"Jimmy Butler makes two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jimmy Butler III MIA
20%
2 Terry Rozier MIA
12%
3 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM
12%
4 Bam Adebayo MIA
12%
5 Tyler Herro MIA
8%
6 Vince Williams Jr. MEM
8%
7 Nikola Jovic MIA
7%
8 Caleb Martin MIA
7%
9 Santi Aldama MEM
7%
10 John Konchar MEM
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
15%
Dunk
9%
Free Throw
20%
Jumper
10%
Layup
46%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Terry Rozier MIA 23.8 4.2 5.8
2 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM 22.9 5.8 3.2
3 Bam Adebayo MIA 22.7 11.0 5.4
4 Jimmy Butler III MIA 21.6 5.1 5.6
5 Tyler Herro MIA 20.0 5.5 4.2
6 Vince Williams Jr. MEM 12.7 6.3 3.4
7 Duncan Robinson MIA 12.3 2.6 2.9
8 Kevin Love MIA 10.7 5.9 2.1
9 Ziaire Williams MEM 9.1 2.9 1.6
10 Josh Richardson MIA 9.0 2.9 1.6
11 David Roddy MEM 8.4 3.5 1.7
12 Santi Aldama MEM 8.3 5.3 1.4
13 Caleb Martin MIA 8.0 4.2 2.0
14 Nikola Jovic MIA 7.8 4.7 2.1
15 Xavier Tillman MEM 6.8 5.5 2.0
16 Derrick Rose MEM 6.5 1.8 3.3
17 GG Jackson MEM 6.3 3.0 0.7
18 Haywood Highsmith MIA 6.0 2.9 1.2
19 Jacob Gilyard MEM 5.9 1.6 3.3
20 Scotty Pippen Jr. MEM 4.7 1.9 2.5
21 John Konchar MEM 4.2 3.6 1.5
22 Jake LaRavia MEM 2.7 1.0 0.4
23 R.J. Hampton MIA 2.7 0.9 1.1
24 Thomas Bryant MIA 2.6 2.1 0.5
25 Orlando Robinson MIA 2.5 1.6 0.8

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.