NBA games

MIN @ WSH

NBA Capital One Arena ·Final
118–107
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIN30273328118
WSH24351929107

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (WSH) / 10 (MIN) games this season
MIN away
home WSH
74% 26%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Edwards S 34 38 3 5
Karl-Anthony Towns S 35 27 6 3
Rudy Gobert S 35 19 16 1
Jaden McDaniels S 30 13 5 0
Nickeil Alexander-Walker S 31 6 5 5
Naz Reid 21 5 3 2
Jordan McLaughlin 13 5 2 2
Kyle Anderson 22 3 5 5
Shake Milton 19 2 3 3
Wendell Moore Jr. 1 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Deni Avdija S 38 24 6 6
Marvin Bagley III 26 17 15 0
Kyle Kuzma S 35 17 14 8
Daniel Gafford S 21 10 4 1
Landry Shamet 12 9 1 2
Jordan Poole S 28 7 2 3
Corey Kispert 16 7 4 0
Tyus Jones S 32 5 2 6
Delon Wright 9 4 0 3
Bilal Coulibaly 20 4 0 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Deni Avdija · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:38 Q1
"Deni Avdija makes dunk (Jordan Poole assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Rudy Gobert MIN
12%
2 Kyle Kuzma WSH
12%
3 Anthony Edwards MIN
11%
4 Deni Avdija WSH
11%
5 Jordan Poole WSH
11%
6 Daniel Gafford WSH
10%
7 Jaden McDaniels MIN
9%
8 Tyus Jones WSH
9%
9 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN
7%
10 Karl-Anthony Towns MIN
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
31%
Free Throw
16%
Jumper
15%
Layup
37%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Karl-Anthony Towns MIN 26.0 8.0 4.2
2 Anthony Edwards MIN 24.9 5.9 6.5
3 Kyle Kuzma WSH 19.7 6.7 4.6
4 Rudy Gobert MIN 16.0 13.3 1.8
5 Deni Avdija WSH 15.7 6.7 4.0
6 Jordan Poole WSH 15.2 2.3 2.7
7 Jaden McDaniels MIN 13.2 3.9 2.2
8 Naz Reid MIN 13.2 5.2 1.7
9 Tyus Jones WSH 12.5 2.9 6.8
10 Marvin Bagley III WSH 12.4 5.8 1.4
11 Corey Kispert WSH 9.8 2.5 1.5
12 Daniel Gafford WSH 9.2 6.9 1.3
13 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN 8.3 2.8 2.4
14 Bilal Coulibaly WSH 8.3 4.3 1.7
15 Kyle Anderson MIN 7.3 3.5 4.5
16 Landry Shamet WSH 7.3 1.4 1.2
17 Delon Wright WSH 5.2 2.0 2.2
18 Trey Jemison III WSH 5.0 5.4 1.3
19 Jordan McLaughlin MIN 4.7 2.1 2.2
20 Luka Garza MIN 4.2 1.3 0.6
21 Shake Milton MIN 3.7 1.4 1.0
22 Patrick Baldwin Jr. WSH 3.2 2.2 0.5
23 Troy Brown Jr. MIN 2.2 0.9 0.7
24 Anthony Gill WSH 2.0 1.3 0.4
25 Wendell Moore Jr. MIN 1.9 0.8 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.