NBA games

CHA @ DET

NBA Little Caesars Arena ·Final
106–113
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CHA31214014106
DET28243724113

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DET) / 10 (CHA) games this season
CHA away
home DET
20% 80%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Brandon Miller S 39 23 7 4
Nick Richards S 27 21 10 0
Miles Bridges S 41 20 10 2
LaMelo Ball S 32 17 4 7
P.J. Washington 29 12 6 5
Cody Martin S 25 5 3 3
Nick Smith Jr. 17 3 0 1
Leaky Black 3 3 2 0
Ish Smith 13 2 4 5
Nate Mensah 7 0 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Bojan Bogdanovic S 33 34 4 4
Alec Burks 26 15 0 1
Jalen Duren S 22 14 8 2
Isaiah Stewart S 34 11 8 2
Jaden Ivey S 22 9 1 2
Ausar Thompson 27 7 2 1
Monte Morris 11 7 3 3
Killian Hayes S 27 6 7 8
Marcus Sasser 12 5 2 2
Mike Muscala 13 5 5 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Duren DET
12%
2 Miles Bridges CHA
12%
3 Jaden Ivey DET
11%
4 LaMelo Ball CHA
11%
5 Nick Richards CHA
9%
6 Bojan Bogdanovic DET
9%
7 Killian Hayes DET
8%
8 Brandon Miller CHA
8%
9 Kevin Knox II DET
7%
10 P.J. Washington CHA
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
32%
Free Throw
14%
Jumper
26%
Layup
27%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 LaMelo Ball CHA 27.6 5.4 8.0
2 Miles Bridges CHA 23.6 6.4 3.4
3 Jaden Ivey DET 20.5 4.9 6.0
4 Bojan Bogdanovic DET 19.9 4.1 3.1
5 Alec Burks DET 18.7 3.4 2.5
6 Jalen Duren DET 17.1 10.6 3.0
7 Brandon Miller CHA 16.3 4.0 2.4
8 Isaiah Stewart DET 13.2 6.7 2.7
9 P.J. Washington CHA 11.3 4.7 1.8
10 Nick Richards CHA 9.6 8.6 1.1
11 Kevin Knox II DET 8.9 2.9 1.4
12 Cody Martin CHA 8.5 3.6 2.5
13 Nick Smith Jr. CHA 7.5 2.7 1.8
14 Marcus Sasser DET 6.7 1.8 3.3
15 Ausar Thompson DET 6.1 5.6 1.2
16 Killian Hayes DET 5.9 2.9 6.1
17 Mike Muscala DET 5.9 3.5 1.3
18 Ish Smith CHA 5.2 2.5 2.6
19 Bryce McGowens CHA 5.2 1.6 1.2
20 Danilo Gallinari DET 5.2 2.1 1.0
21 JT Thor CHA 4.8 3.7 0.8
22 James Wiseman DET 4.5 3.8 0.5
23 Nate Mensah CHA 4.1 3.5 1.0
24 James Bouknight CHA 3.5 0.9 0.6
25 Frank Ntilikina CHA 3.4 1.4 1.8
26 Leaky Black CHA 2.9 1.6 0.7
27 Joe Harris DET 2.1 0.9 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.