NBA games

LAL @ LAC

NBA crypto.com Arena ·Final
116–127
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAL29353319116
LAC35422921127

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAC) / 10 (LAL) games this season
LAL away
home LAC
23% 77%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
D'Angelo Russell S 40 27 5 10
Anthony Davis S 36 26 12 2
Jarred Vanderbilt 25 12 9 2
Austin Reaves S 34 12 2 5
Taurean Prince S 33 11 3 2
Rui Hachimura S 30 11 3 2
Cam Reddish 16 9 0 1
Christian Wood 14 6 7 3
Maxwell Lewis 1 2 0 0
Max Christie 10 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kawhi Leonard S 38 25 11 10
James Harden S 39 23 2 10
Paul George S 30 17 5 3
Norman Powell 27 17 5 2
Terance Mann S 23 17 1 1
Russell Westbrook 18 16 6 3
Amir Coffey 24 9 2 0
Daniel Theis 21 3 2 2
Mason Plumlee S 19 0 2 2
Kobe Brown 1 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Kawhi Leonard · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:39 Q1
"Kawhi Leonard makes 15-foot pullup jump shot (James Harden assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Anthony Davis LAL
14%
2 Kawhi Leonard LAC
13%
3 Austin Reaves LAL
12%
4 Mason Plumlee LAC
11%
5 James Harden LAC
10%
6 Terance Mann LAC
9%
7 Rui Hachimura LAL
9%
8 Taurean Prince LAL
8%
9 Paul George LAC
7%
10 D'Angelo Russell LAL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
16%
Jumper
25%
Layup
50%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Anthony Davis LAL 23.9 11.4 5.3
2 Kawhi Leonard LAC 23.9 6.3 4.4
3 Paul George LAC 22.9 5.6 3.2
4 D'Angelo Russell LAL 20.7 2.6 6.2
5 James Harden LAC 18.6 4.2 10.3
6 Austin Reaves LAL 15.6 3.5 5.6
7 Norman Powell LAC 13.8 3.1 1.5
8 Russell Westbrook LAC 10.7 3.8 4.8
9 Terance Mann LAC 9.7 3.0 1.7
10 Taurean Prince LAL 9.4 2.8 1.7
11 Rui Hachimura LAL 9.3 3.0 1.2
12 Christian Wood LAL 8.2 5.8 1.3
13 Cam Reddish LAL 6.3 2.1 1.5
14 Max Christie LAL 6.2 2.7 1.3
15 Jarred Vanderbilt LAL 6.1 4.4 1.5
16 Daniel Theis LAC 6.1 3.9 1.2
17 Amir Coffey LAC 6.1 1.8 1.0
18 Mason Plumlee LAC 5.9 4.3 1.1
19 P.J. Tucker LAC 3.5 2.1 1.0
20 Brandon Boston LAC 3.3 0.7 0.5
21 Bones Hyland LAC 3.3 0.8 0.9
22 Jaxson Hayes LAL 2.9 1.5 0.6
23 Kobe Brown LAC 2.5 0.8 0.7
24 Jalen Hood-Schifino LAL 2.4 1.3 0.6
25 Maxwell Lewis LAL 2.3 0.9 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.