NBA games

POR @ OKC

NBA Paycom Center ·Final
109–111
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
POR28382023109
OKC38203023111

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (OKC) / 10 (POR) games this season
POR away
home OKC
15% 85%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Scoot Henderson 26 19 4 7
Jerami Grant S 30 18 5 1
Malcolm Brogdon S 35 18 2 7
Anfernee Simons S 33 17 3 5
Jabari Walker S 34 14 13 0
Duop Reath 21 10 4 3
Matisse Thybulle 20 8 3 1
Deandre Ayton S 27 5 7 2
Toumani Camara 14 0 5 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 35 33 6 10
Jalen Williams S 32 19 4 2
Aaron Wiggins 17 13 3 0
Isaiah Joe 20 9 1 2
Chet Holmgren S 32 8 10 3
Jaylin Williams 15 7 2 1
Josh Giddey S 25 7 5 3
Luguentz Dort S 24 6 3 1
Kenrich Williams 13 5 4 0
Cason Wallace 12 3 4 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Chet Holmgren · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:23 Q1
"Chet Holmgren makes 13-foot pullup jump shot (Luguentz Dort assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Chet Holmgren OKC
12%
2 Jerami Grant POR
12%
3 Deandre Ayton POR
11%
4 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
10%
5 Jalen Williams OKC
10%
6 Malcolm Brogdon POR
10%
7 Anfernee Simons POR
9%
8 Luguentz Dort OKC
9%
9 Josh Giddey OKC
9%
10 Jabari Walker POR
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
19%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
26%
Jumper
28%
Layup
22%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 31.0 5.9 6.8
2 Jalen Williams OKC 23.7 5.3 6.9
3 Jerami Grant POR 20.3 3.5 2.5
4 Anfernee Simons POR 20.3 3.9 4.5
5 Chet Holmgren OKC 18.1 6.1 3.6
6 Malcolm Brogdon POR 15.3 3.5 4.3
7 Scoot Henderson POR 13.7 3.6 4.9
8 Deandre Ayton POR 13.1 9.7 1.7
9 Jabari Walker POR 12.3 8.0 1.6
10 Luguentz Dort OKC 12.0 4.0 1.8
11 Duop Reath POR 11.9 6.0 1.7
12 Josh Giddey OKC 11.4 6.6 5.2
13 Toumani Camara POR 8.1 4.9 1.4
14 Isaiah Joe OKC 7.3 2.8 1.7
15 Cason Wallace OKC 6.7 2.8 1.3
16 Kris Murray POR 5.8 2.2 1.1
17 Aaron Wiggins OKC 5.3 1.8 1.3
18 Matisse Thybulle POR 5.2 2.1 1.1
19 Vasilije Micic OKC 4.4 1.2 2.1
20 Rayan Rupert POR 4.3 2.0 1.0
21 Kenrich Williams OKC 4.3 3.0 1.3
22 Ibou Badji POR 3.5 3.7 0.9
23 Jaylin Williams OKC 3.3 2.6 1.3
24 Tre Mann OKC 3.2 1.5 1.5
25 Keyontae Johnson OKC 3.0 0.8 0.5
26 Davis Bertans OKC 2.9 1.0 0.7
27 Aleksej Pokusevski OKC 2.8 1.2 0.9

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.