NBA games

UTAH @ NO

NBA Smoothie King Center ·Final
124–153
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
UTAH30293233124
NO34433838153

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NO) / 10 (UTAH) games this season
UTAH away
home NO
28% 72%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Collin Sexton S 24 22 3 7
Simone Fontecchio S 25 18 4 2
John Collins S 24 14 9 2
Keyonte George 25 12 1 5
Lauri Markkanen S 27 11 4 1
Kris Dunn S 17 10 3 4
Kelly Olynyk 14 9 3 2
Jordan Clarkson 22 9 1 1
Talen Horton-Tucker 8 8 3 2
Walker Kessler 25 6 5 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
CJ McCollum S 29 33 5 2
Herbert Jones S 26 22 5 5
Brandon Ingram S 31 18 5 6
Jonas Valanciunas S 23 17 12 3
Zion Williamson S 27 17 3 11
Trey Murphy III 25 14 4 2
Larry Nance Jr. 20 12 8 3
Jose Alvarado 5 9 2 0
Jordan Hawkins 16 6 2 0
Naji Marshall 17 3 2 4

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Lauri Markkanen · Layup (2 pts) · 11:13 Q1
"Lauri Markkanen makes driving layup"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Zion Williamson NO
18%
2 Brandon Ingram NO
11%
3 Collin Sexton UTAH
11%
4 John Collins UTAH
10%
5 Lauri Markkanen UTAH
9%
6 Jonas Valanciunas NO
9%
7 CJ McCollum NO
8%
8 Herbert Jones NO
8%
9 Kris Dunn UTAH
8%
10 Simone Fontecchio UTAH
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
11%
Free Throw
33%
Jumper
20%
Layup
33%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Collin Sexton UTAH 23.8 2.8 5.7
2 Zion Williamson NO 23.4 5.3 5.6
3 Lauri Markkanen UTAH 23.0 9.5 2.9
4 Jordan Clarkson UTAH 22.4 4.3 5.1
5 CJ McCollum NO 19.5 4.8 6.0
6 Brandon Ingram NO 18.3 4.8 6.6
7 John Collins UTAH 14.4 6.2 2.0
8 Talen Horton-Tucker UTAH 13.7 2.3 3.4
9 Jonas Valanciunas NO 12.5 8.8 2.0
10 Herbert Jones NO 11.8 3.2 2.0
11 Jordan Hawkins NO 10.5 2.2 1.4
12 Trey Murphy III NO 9.8 3.2 1.9
13 Keyonte George UTAH 9.6 2.4 3.3
14 Simone Fontecchio UTAH 9.2 3.8 2.2
15 Larry Nance Jr. NO 7.4 5.3 1.7
16 Kelly Olynyk UTAH 7.2 3.6 3.2
17 Walker Kessler UTAH 6.6 6.8 0.9
18 Dyson Daniels NO 6.4 3.1 2.7
19 Jose Alvarado NO 6.3 1.5 1.3
20 Naji Marshall NO 6.1 2.4 1.0
21 Kris Dunn UTAH 5.9 3.6 4.6
22 Ochai Agbaji UTAH 4.0 2.7 0.9
23 Cody Zeller NO 2.6 2.1 0.9
24 Luka Samanic UTAH 2.5 1.5 0.3
25 Omer Yurtseven UTAH 1.8 2.9 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.