NBA games

DEN @ IND

NBA Gainbridge Fieldhouse ·Final
114–109
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DEN28263921114
IND29331928109

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (IND) / 10 (DEN) games this season
DEN away
home IND
63% 37%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nikola Jokic S 37 31 13 10
Jamal Murray S 37 31 8 7
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope S 35 14 5 0
Reggie Jackson 24 13 2 2
Aaron Gordon S 32 9 1 1
Peyton Watson 19 7 2 0
Michael Porter Jr. S 31 5 4 1
Christian Braun 15 2 4 0
DeAndre Jordan 11 2 3 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Myles Turner S 37 22 6 1
T.J. McConnell 21 17 1 7
Pascal Siakam S 33 16 10 4
Andrew Nembhard S 27 15 1 7
Aaron Nesmith S 34 13 9 0
Bennedict Mathurin 28 11 5 3
Ben Sheppard 12 5 1 1
Obi Toppin 17 4 2 0
Isaiah Jackson 9 3 2 0
Buddy Hield S 22 3 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Nikola Jokic · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:20 Q1
"Nikola Jokic makes 14-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Nikola Jokic DEN
22%
2 Jamal Murray DEN
11%
3 Aaron Gordon DEN
10%
4 Myles Turner IND
9%
5 Pascal Siakam IND
9%
6 T.J. McConnell IND
9%
7 Michael Porter Jr. DEN
8%
8 Aaron Nesmith IND
7%
9 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope DEN
7%
10 Buddy Hield IND
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
5%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
34%
Jumper
20%
Layup
34%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Nikola Jokic DEN 28.2 12.1 8.5
2 Jamal Murray DEN 25.5 4.3 7.2
3 Pascal Siakam IND 23.4 4.9 4.4
4 Myles Turner IND 17.6 6.3 2.1
5 Michael Porter Jr. DEN 16.9 5.5 1.7
6 Bennedict Mathurin IND 15.8 3.6 2.3
7 Aaron Gordon DEN 15.0 6.6 2.4
8 Buddy Hield IND 13.2 3.7 3.3
9 Aaron Nesmith IND 11.2 3.5 1.6
10 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope DEN 10.8 3.3 2.1
11 Andrew Nembhard IND 10.6 2.4 5.0
12 Jalen Smith IND 10.0 5.6 1.6
13 Obi Toppin IND 9.4 3.2 1.9
14 T.J. McConnell IND 9.3 2.6 6.2
15 Reggie Jackson DEN 9.0 2.0 3.1
16 Peyton Watson DEN 6.6 3.0 0.8
17 Jarace Walker IND 5.5 2.1 1.4
18 Christian Braun DEN 5.4 3.1 0.9
19 Isaiah Jackson IND 5.3 3.7 0.8
20 DeAndre Jordan DEN 4.1 4.7 0.8
21 Ben Sheppard IND 4.1 1.7 1.0
22 Hunter Tyson DEN 3.5 1.6 0.7
23 Justin Holiday DEN 3.1 1.1 0.9
24 Zeke Nnaji DEN 3.0 1.8 0.7
25 Oscar Tshiebwe IND 2.0 1.1 0.3
26 Jay Huff DEN 1.9 1.0 0.3
27 Jalen Pickett DEN 1.8 0.7 0.6
28 Kendall Brown IND 1.8 0.7 0.3
29 James Johnson IND 1.2 0.7 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.