NBA games

ATL @ SAC

NBA Golden 1 Center ·Final
107–122
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ATL24162938107
SAC27303035122

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SAC) / 10 (ATL) games this season
ATL away
home SAC
26% 74%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Dejounte Murray S 40 35 10 6
Bogdan Bogdanovic S 34 18 2 4
Saddiq Bey S 30 13 7 2
Jalen Johnson S 38 11 7 0
Clint Capela S 22 11 12 1
Garrison Mathews 23 9 1 0
Onyeka Okongwu 29 8 9 3
Patty Mills 16 2 0 2
Trent Forrest 8 0 2 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Harrison Barnes S 30 32 4 0
Domantas Sabonis S 38 14 21 6
Malik Monk 25 13 1 8
Keegan Murray S 32 13 6 2
De'Aaron Fox S 35 12 3 1
Trey Lyles 16 10 7 0
Kevin Huerter S 26 8 2 3
Sasha Vezenkov 6 8 2 0
JaVale McGee 10 7 3 0
Davion Mitchell 22 5 2 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Clint Capela · Layup (2 pts) · 11:25 Q1
"Clint Capela makes tip shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 De'Aaron Fox SAC
14%
2 Domantas Sabonis SAC
13%
3 Dejounte Murray ATL
12%
4 Jalen Johnson ATL
10%
5 Keegan Murray SAC
10%
6 Clint Capela ATL
10%
7 Saddiq Bey ATL
9%
8 Chris Duarte SAC
7%
9 Harrison Barnes SAC
7%
10 Kevin Huerter SAC
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
16%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
22%
Jumper
40%
Layup
16%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Domantas Sabonis SAC 25.0 14.2 10.3
2 De'Aaron Fox SAC 24.7 3.6 5.7
3 Dejounte Murray ATL 24.3 5.5 5.1
4 Malik Monk SAC 19.5 3.8 6.4
5 Jalen Johnson ATL 18.5 8.0 4.5
6 Keegan Murray SAC 18.0 6.0 2.0
7 Bogdan Bogdanovic ATL 15.2 3.1 2.7
8 Saddiq Bey ATL 12.1 5.3 1.6
9 Clint Capela ATL 10.0 9.6 1.0
10 Onyeka Okongwu ATL 9.7 6.5 1.4
11 Kevin Huerter SAC 9.3 3.2 2.0
12 Harrison Barnes SAC 8.7 2.0 1.3
13 Trey Lyles SAC 6.5 3.3 1.2
14 Garrison Mathews ATL 5.0 1.5 1.2
15 Chris Duarte SAC 4.4 2.0 1.1
16 Trent Forrest ATL 3.9 1.8 1.6
17 Sasha Vezenkov SAC 3.9 1.8 0.5
18 Patty Mills ATL 3.7 1.2 0.9
19 Bruno Fernando ATL 3.7 2.7 0.7
20 AJ Griffin ATL 3.1 1.2 0.7
21 JaVale McGee SAC 3.1 2.4 0.5
22 Keon Ellis SAC 3.0 1.3 0.8
23 Seth Lundy ATL 2.7 1.0 0.7
24 Alex Len SAC 2.7 3.5 1.1
25 Davion Mitchell SAC 2.6 0.8 0.8
26 Colby Jones SAC 1.9 1.0 0.6
27 Juan Toscano-Anderson SAC 1.6 1.0 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.