NBA games

CHI @ PHX

NBA Mortgage Matchup Center ·Final
113–115
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CHI37292423113
PHX22273432115

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHX) / 10 (CHI) games this season
CHI away
home PHX
42% 58%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Coby White S 41 26 10 9
DeMar DeRozan S 40 21 5 3
Nikola Vucevic S 37 19 17 7
Alex Caruso S 33 15 4 3
Patrick Williams S 32 13 4 2
Ayo Dosunmu 30 13 1 0
Andre Drummond 11 6 5 0
Jevon Carter 8 0 1 0
Dalen Terry 9 0 0 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kevin Durant S 41 43 6 8
Bradley Beal S 38 18 4 5
Devin Booker S 41 16 4 5
Drew Eubanks 22 10 8 4
Grayson Allen S 36 9 4 3
Jusuf Nurkic S 26 8 7 4
Keita Bates-Diop 18 5 1 2
Josh Okogie 14 4 3 0
Saben Lee 6 2 2 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Patrick Williams · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:13 Q1
"Patrick Williams makes 26-foot three point jumper (Nikola Vucevic assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Nikola Vucevic CHI
12%
2 Devin Booker PHX
12%
3 Bradley Beal PHX
12%
4 DeMar DeRozan CHI
11%
5 Coby White CHI
10%
6 Kevin Durant PHX
10%
7 Jusuf Nurkic PHX
10%
8 Grayson Allen PHX
8%
9 Patrick Williams CHI
7%
10 Alex Caruso CHI
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
14%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
18%
Jumper
29%
Layup
35%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Devin Booker PHX 25.8 4.0 7.2
2 Kevin Durant PHX 25.2 6.3 6.0
3 Coby White CHI 22.8 4.8 5.5
4 Bradley Beal PHX 21.9 5.1 4.8
5 DeMar DeRozan CHI 21.7 4.7 5.3
6 Nikola Vucevic CHI 19.5 10.5 3.8
7 Grayson Allen PHX 16.1 3.8 3.5
8 Ayo Dosunmu CHI 12.5 3.3 2.7
9 Jusuf Nurkic PHX 11.1 9.4 3.6
10 Patrick Williams CHI 10.7 2.9 2.0
11 Alex Caruso CHI 10.2 3.7 2.9
12 Andre Drummond CHI 8.8 9.2 1.0
13 Torrey Craig CHI 7.8 4.1 1.1
14 Chimezie Metu PHX 5.7 2.9 1.0
15 Jevon Carter CHI 5.5 1.4 1.2
16 Nassir Little PHX 4.3 2.3 0.7
17 Josh Okogie PHX 4.1 1.9 1.3
18 Dalen Terry CHI 3.8 2.0 1.6
19 Drew Eubanks PHX 3.8 3.3 0.5
20 Keita Bates-Diop PHX 3.7 2.0 1.0
21 Terry Taylor CHI 3.0 2.0 0.7
22 Udoka Azubuike PHX 2.9 2.3 0.5
23 Jordan Goodwin PHX 2.5 2.0 1.0
24 Julian Phillips CHI 2.3 1.3 0.5
25 Saben Lee PHX 2.1 1.0 0.7
26 Yuta Watanabe PHX 1.8 0.8 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.