NBA games

BOS @ DAL

NBA American Airlines Center ·Final
119–110
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
BOS24412925119
DAL26332427110

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DAL) / 10 (BOS) games this season
BOS away
home DAL
47% 53%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jayson Tatum S 41 39 11 5
Jaylen Brown S 37 34 3 4
Jrue Holiday S 38 17 7 6
Al Horford S 31 11 6 3
Derrick White S 34 6 4 1
Payton Pritchard 25 5 7 6
Sam Hauser 15 5 1 0
Luke Kornet 19 2 5 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Luka Doncic S 40 33 18 13
Kyrie Irving S 36 23 6 3
Tim Hardaway Jr. 32 20 2 1
Josh Green S 38 14 7 1
Maxi Kleber 26 7 2 0
Dereck Lively II S 25 6 8 1
Derrick Jones Jr. S 25 5 2 3
Grant Williams 18 2 3 2
Jaden Hardy 2 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Luka Doncic · Layup (2 pts) · 11:31 Q1
"Luka Doncic makes driving layup"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Luka Doncic DAL
19%
2 Kyrie Irving DAL
12%
3 Jayson Tatum BOS
10%
4 Jaylen Brown BOS
10%
5 Dereck Lively II DAL
8%
6 Tim Hardaway Jr. DAL
7%
7 Derrick Jones Jr. DAL
7%
8 Jrue Holiday BOS
7%
9 Derrick White BOS
7%
10 Josh Green DAL
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
5%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
27%
Jumper
7%
Layup
60%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Luka Doncic DAL 34.6 8.9 10.0
2 Kyrie Irving DAL 27.5 6.7 5.6
3 Jayson Tatum BOS 25.3 7.7 5.0
4 Jaylen Brown BOS 23.5 6.0 4.1
5 Tim Hardaway Jr. DAL 16.5 3.8 2.2
6 Derrick White BOS 14.3 4.5 3.7
7 Jrue Holiday BOS 13.4 4.8 4.0
8 Derrick Jones Jr. DAL 11.0 4.5 1.1
9 Payton Pritchard BOS 9.4 2.9 2.3
10 Josh Green DAL 9.1 3.0 2.0
11 Al Horford BOS 9.0 6.1 2.3
12 Dereck Lively II DAL 8.8 7.2 1.2
13 Jaden Hardy DAL 8.0 2.7 1.5
14 Sam Hauser BOS 6.5 3.7 1.3
15 Grant Williams DAL 5.9 2.6 1.7
16 Luke Kornet BOS 5.0 4.5 1.0
17 Dwight Powell DAL 4.7 4.9 1.9
18 Neemias Queta BOS 4.5 3.9 0.6
19 A.J. Lawson DAL 4.4 1.6 0.7
20 Maxi Kleber DAL 4.0 2.9 1.1
21 Brandon Williams DAL 3.6 0.9 0.7
22 Olivier-Maxence Prosper DAL 2.7 2.2 0.8
23 Lamar Stevens BOS 2.6 1.5 0.4
24 Svi Mykhailiuk BOS 2.6 1.0 0.4
25 Richaun Holmes DAL 2.3 2.7 0.4
26 Markieff Morris DAL 2.2 1.4 0.6
27 Dalano Banton BOS 2.0 1.0 0.5
28 Jordan Walsh BOS 2.0 2.6 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.