NBA games

CHA @ MIN

NBA Target Center ·Final
128–125
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CHA32322836128
MIN34353818125

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIN) / 10 (CHA) games this season
CHA away
home MIN
37% 63%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Miles Bridges S 40 28 5 2
Brandon Miller S 29 27 3 2
LaMelo Ball S 35 18 6 13
P.J. Washington S 33 12 7 3
Terry Rozier S 35 11 2 4
Nick Smith Jr. 15 8 2 2
JT Thor 16 7 3 0
Leaky Black 5 7 3 1
Ish Smith 11 6 1 1
Bryce McGowens 6 2 0 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Karl-Anthony Towns S 38 62 8 2
Nickeil Alexander-Walker S 30 18 0 2
Rudy Gobert S 39 13 11 1
Anthony Edwards S 37 9 5 11
Jaden McDaniels S 35 9 5 4
Naz Reid 15 5 0 0
Kyle Anderson 22 5 4 8
Shake Milton 15 4 1 3
Jordan McLaughlin 10 0 2 3

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Karl-Anthony Towns · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:44 Q1
"Karl-Anthony Towns makes 25-foot three pointer (Rudy Gobert assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Rudy Gobert MIN
14%
2 LaMelo Ball CHA
13%
3 Karl-Anthony Towns MIN
13%
4 Miles Bridges CHA
12%
5 Anthony Edwards MIN
12%
6 Terry Rozier CHA
10%
7 Jaden McDaniels MIN
8%
8 P.J. Washington CHA
8%
9 Brandon Miller CHA
8%
10 Naz Reid MIN
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
44%
Free Throw
20%
Jumper
18%
Layup
16%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 LaMelo Ball CHA 26.4 5.4 7.7
2 Anthony Edwards MIN 25.2 5.6 5.8
3 Terry Rozier CHA 23.8 4.2 5.8
4 Karl-Anthony Towns MIN 23.7 7.7 4.1
5 Miles Bridges CHA 22.3 6.6 3.5
6 Rudy Gobert MIN 14.7 11.8 1.7
7 Naz Reid MIN 13.5 5.7 1.7
8 Jaden McDaniels MIN 13.0 3.5 1.9
9 Brandon Miller CHA 12.4 3.7 2.2
10 P.J. Washington CHA 10.4 4.6 1.6
11 Nick Smith Jr. CHA 6.7 2.7 1.5
12 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN 6.7 2.6 2.2
13 Kyle Anderson MIN 6.6 3.2 3.4
14 Bryce McGowens CHA 5.0 1.5 1.1
15 Jordan McLaughlin MIN 4.8 1.7 2.1
16 Ish Smith CHA 4.6 2.0 2.8
17 Luka Garza MIN 4.4 1.5 0.7
18 JT Thor CHA 4.2 3.3 0.6
19 Daishen Nix MIN 3.8 1.3 1.3
20 Nate Mensah CHA 3.3 3.0 0.7
21 James Bouknight CHA 3.1 0.8 0.4
22 Frank Ntilikina CHA 3.0 1.2 1.6
23 Shake Milton MIN 2.5 0.7 0.6
24 Troy Brown Jr. MIN 2.2 1.0 0.7
25 Wendell Moore Jr. MIN 2.0 0.9 0.5
26 Leaky Black CHA 1.6 0.8 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.