NBA games

MEM @ TOR

NBA Scotiabank Arena ·Final
108–100
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MEM30233223108
TOR25212529100

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (TOR) / 10 (MEM) games this season
MEM away
home TOR
43% 57%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaren Jackson Jr. S 32 27 4 5
Luke Kennard S 35 19 3 7
Vince Williams Jr. S 35 18 10 1
Santi Aldama S 23 10 4 4
David Roddy 23 8 9 2
GG Jackson 21 7 5 1
John Konchar S 28 6 5 4
Ziaire Williams 14 6 2 2
Jacob Gilyard 13 5 1 2
Xavier Tillman 16 2 4 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
RJ Barrett S 37 29 9 1
Scottie Barnes S 41 22 12 8
Thaddeus Young 26 12 6 4
Dennis Schroder 22 11 2 3
Immanuel Quickley S 37 8 5 10
Bruce Brown 21 7 3 2
Gary Trent Jr. S 24 6 0 2
Chris Boucher 12 5 5 1
Gradey Dick 15 0 3 0
Jontay Porter S 6 0 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jaren Jackson Jr. · Layup (2 pts) · 11:37 Q1
"Jaren Jackson Jr. makes layup"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM
13%
2 Scottie Barnes TOR
13%
3 RJ Barrett TOR
10%
4 Immanuel Quickley TOR
10%
5 Xavier Tillman MEM
9%
6 John Konchar MEM
8%
7 Santi Aldama MEM
8%
8 Jontay Porter TOR
7%
9 Gary Trent Jr. TOR
7%
10 Vince Williams Jr. MEM
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
22%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
11%
Jumper
45%
Layup
18%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM 23.2 5.8 3.2
2 RJ Barrett TOR 22.6 6.7 4.2
3 Scottie Barnes TOR 20.4 5.5 6.0
4 Immanuel Quickley TOR 19.2 4.3 6.1
5 Bruce Brown TOR 13.1 5.0 3.1
6 Dennis Schroder TOR 13.0 2.8 3.9
7 Vince Williams Jr. MEM 12.6 5.5 3.8
8 Gary Trent Jr. TOR 12.5 2.6 1.8
9 Luke Kennard MEM 10.8 3.3 3.3
10 Ziaire Williams MEM 9.3 3.0 1.5
11 David Roddy MEM 8.5 3.1 1.7
12 Santi Aldama MEM 7.4 5.4 1.3
13 Xavier Tillman MEM 7.4 5.6 1.9
14 Derrick Rose MEM 7.2 1.9 3.5
15 GG Jackson MEM 6.2 2.7 0.7
16 Chris Boucher TOR 6.2 4.9 1.0
17 Jontay Porter TOR 6.1 3.6 2.0
18 Jacob Gilyard MEM 6.0 1.7 3.4
19 Thaddeus Young TOR 5.1 2.7 2.0
20 John Konchar MEM 4.6 3.6 1.7
21 Jalen McDaniels TOR 4.5 1.7 0.7
22 Gradey Dick TOR 3.8 1.3 1.0
23 Jordan Nwora TOR 3.8 1.4 0.9
24 Jake LaRavia MEM 3.4 1.2 0.5
25 Garrett Temple TOR 2.7 1.2 0.7
26 Otto Porter Jr. TOR 2.0 1.2 0.6
27 Kira Lewis Jr. TOR 2.0 0.9 0.8

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.