NBA games

SA @ PHI

NBA Xfinity Mobile Arena ·Final
123–133
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SA35233134123
PHI34284229133

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHI) / 10 (SA) games this season
SA away
home PHI
34% 66%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Victor Wembanyama S 28 33 7 2
Devin Vassell S 38 22 4 9
Jeremy Sochan S 33 14 8 4
Doug McDermott 22 13 5 0
Julian Champagnie S 15 12 2 1
Tre Jones S 33 12 4 6
Keldon Johnson 21 8 2 0
Blake Wesley 19 6 2 2
Cedi Osman 11 2 3 1
Zach Collins 20 1 6 4
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Joel Embiid S 37 70 18 5
Tyrese Maxey S 42 18 4 8
Tobias Harris S 35 14 2 6
Danuel House Jr. 23 8 2 1
Kelly Oubre Jr. S 25 8 3 0
Paul Reed 14 6 8 0
Nicolas Batum S 33 5 8 6
KJ Martin 17 4 2 1
Ricky Council IV 1 0 0 0
Furkan Korkmaz 13 0 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jeremy Sochan · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:37 Q1
"Jeremy Sochan makes 24-foot three point jumper (Devin Vassell assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Tyrese Maxey PHI
17%
2 Joel Embiid PHI
12%
3 Tobias Harris PHI
11%
4 Victor Wembanyama SA
11%
5 Devin Vassell SA
10%
6 Jeremy Sochan SA
9%
7 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI
8%
8 Tre Jones SA
7%
9 Julian Champagnie SA
7%
10 Nicolas Batum PHI
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
29%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
16%
Jumper
27%
Layup
26%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Joel Embiid PHI 44.4 10.7 7.2
2 Victor Wembanyama SA 29.0 9.4 3.7
3 Tyrese Maxey PHI 24.3 3.6 7.4
4 Tobias Harris PHI 21.6 6.1 4.2
5 Devin Vassell SA 17.4 4.1 4.2
6 Keldon Johnson SA 16.4 4.9 2.5
7 Jeremy Sochan SA 14.5 6.2 3.6
8 Tre Jones SA 14.4 4.2 6.2
9 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI 13.1 4.3 1.9
10 Zach Collins SA 13.0 5.8 2.7
11 Nicolas Batum PHI 8.0 4.1 2.4
12 Julian Champagnie SA 7.5 3.2 1.4
13 Mamadi Diakite SA 6.7 2.7 0.5
14 Cedi Osman SA 6.6 3.5 1.6
15 Paul Reed PHI 6.1 5.6 1.1
16 Doug McDermott SA 6.0 1.4 0.9
17 Malaki Branham SA 6.0 1.5 1.3
18 Blake Wesley SA 5.2 1.9 1.5
19 Danuel House Jr. PHI 4.3 2.0 0.8
20 Terquavion Smith PHI 4.2 1.1 0.7
21 Devonte' Graham SA 3.6 1.3 1.4
22 Sandro Mamukelashvili SA 2.8 1.9 0.7
23 Ricky Council IV PHI 2.7 1.2 0.5
24 Furkan Korkmaz PHI 2.6 1.2 0.7
25 KJ Martin PHI 2.4 1.2 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.