NBA games

CLE @ ORL

NBA Kia Center ·Final
12699
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CLE38343519126
ORL1928272599

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ORL) / 10 (CLE) games this season
CLE away
home ORL
60% 40%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Sam Merrill 31 26 3 1
Donovan Mitchell S 30 25 3 13
Jarrett Allen S 27 14 11 4
Craig Porter Jr. 22 12 3 5
Georges Niang 28 11 5 1
Max Strus S 27 10 4 4
Dean Wade S 24 9 3 0
Isaac Okoro S 20 8 1 0
Damian Jones 9 7 1 0
Tristan Thompson 21 4 5 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Paolo Banchero S 29 18 3 6
Franz Wagner S 24 17 3 2
Moritz Wagner 18 15 4 1
Wendell Carter Jr. S 27 10 9 1
Trevelin Queen 14 8 1 5
Anthony Black S 18 7 1 2
Caleb Houstan 24 6 2 0
Jalen Suggs S 26 6 2 3
Cole Anthony 13 5 2 2
Chuma Okeke 21 3 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Max Strus · Layup (2 pts) · 11:40 Q1
"Max Strus makes 1-foot two point shot (Jarrett Allen assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jarrett Allen CLE
16%
2 Paolo Banchero ORL
14%
3 Franz Wagner ORL
11%
4 Donovan Mitchell CLE
11%
5 Max Strus CLE
9%
6 Jalen Suggs ORL
8%
7 Goga Bitadze ORL
8%
8 Isaac Okoro CLE
8%
9 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL
7%
10 Dean Wade CLE
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
26%
Free Throw
18%
Jumper
23%
Layup
32%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Donovan Mitchell CLE 28.0 4.8 6.9
2 Paolo Banchero ORL 26.4 6.7 5.5
3 Franz Wagner ORL 23.8 5.7 4.4
4 Jarrett Allen CLE 18.2 11.8 4.2
5 Caris LeVert CLE 18.1 3.5 5.0
6 Jalen Suggs ORL 13.9 3.9 2.1
7 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 11.9 5.5 1.8
8 Georges Niang CLE 11.0 4.1 1.5
9 Isaac Okoro CLE 10.8 3.5 1.9
10 Max Strus CLE 10.2 4.2 3.2
11 Cole Anthony ORL 10.0 3.7 2.4
12 Moritz Wagner ORL 9.9 4.7 1.7
13 Sam Merrill CLE 9.8 3.2 2.3
14 Caleb Houstan ORL 8.6 2.2 1.4
15 Craig Porter Jr. CLE 8.3 3.7 3.6
16 Chuma Okeke ORL 7.7 4.5 1.3
17 Goga Bitadze ORL 6.6 7.5 1.5
18 Ty Jerome CLE 6.2 2.0 3.3
19 Joe Ingles ORL 6.2 2.2 3.1
20 Dean Wade CLE 6.0 3.6 1.1
21 Trevelin Queen ORL 5.7 2.0 1.1
22 Anthony Black ORL 5.1 1.8 1.4
23 Tristan Thompson CLE 5.0 4.1 1.3
24 Damian Jones CLE 2.7 1.5 0.4
25 Admiral Schofield ORL 1.1 0.5 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.