NBA games

MIL @ DET

NBA Little Caesars Arena ·Final
122–113
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIL30283133122
DET30262928113

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DET) / 10 (MIL) games this season
MIL away
home DET
60% 40%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Giannis Antetokounmpo S 36 31 17 10
Khris Middleton S 31 26 2 2
Damian Lillard S 37 17 5 8
Brook Lopez S 35 15 11 3
Malik Beasley S 35 13 6 2
Andre Jackson Jr. 20 8 1 0
Bobby Portis 25 7 4 0
Jae Crowder 12 3 2 1
Pat Connaughton 9 2 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Marcus Sasser 26 23 1 3
Isaiah Stewart 28 19 8 2
Jaden Ivey S 32 17 3 6
Bojan Bogdanovic S 23 15 1 1
Jalen Duren S 33 12 12 1
Danilo Gallinari 10 9 3 2
Alec Burks 28 9 2 3
Kevin Knox II S 9 4 2 0
Mike Muscala 16 3 4 1
Killian Hayes S 16 2 1 5

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Malik Beasley · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:35 Q1
"Malik Beasley makes 24-foot three point jumper (Damian Lillard assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Damian Lillard MIL
14%
2 Jalen Duren DET
12%
3 Jaden Ivey DET
10%
4 Khris Middleton MIL
10%
5 Brook Lopez MIL
10%
6 Bojan Bogdanovic DET
9%
7 Killian Hayes DET
8%
8 Isaiah Stewart DET
7%
9 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL
7%
10 Kevin Knox II DET
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
20%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
7%
Jumper
55%
Layup
15%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL 32.6 12.4 9.0
2 Damian Lillard MIL 25.4 3.8 7.0
3 Jaden Ivey DET 21.1 4.9 5.9
4 Bojan Bogdanovic DET 21.0 4.6 3.5
5 Alec Burks DET 19.3 3.5 2.6
6 Jalen Duren DET 17.0 10.6 3.0
7 Khris Middleton MIL 16.8 3.9 6.7
8 Brook Lopez MIL 14.8 6.2 2.4
9 Isaiah Stewart DET 11.8 6.0 2.6
10 Malik Beasley MIL 11.3 3.1 1.6
11 Bobby Portis MIL 11.0 6.0 1.1
12 Kevin Knox II DET 10.0 3.0 1.5
13 Jae Crowder MIL 8.7 3.4 1.5
14 Killian Hayes DET 6.6 2.7 5.9
15 Ausar Thompson DET 6.6 5.6 1.4
16 Pat Connaughton MIL 6.4 2.5 1.6
17 Mike Muscala DET 6.1 3.6 1.2
18 Cameron Payne MIL 5.9 1.1 1.7
19 Danilo Gallinari DET 5.7 2.2 1.1
20 James Wiseman DET 5.7 4.1 0.8
21 Marcus Sasser DET 5.5 1.6 3.0
22 MarJon Beauchamp MIL 4.7 2.3 1.0
23 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 4.4 3.6 1.1
24 AJ Green MIL 3.8 1.1 0.7
25 Joe Harris DET 2.6 1.0 0.6
26 Thanasis Antetokounmpo MIL 2.2 1.3 0.5
27 Robin Lopez MIL 2.2 0.6 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.