NBA games

POR @ LAL

NBA crypto.com Arena ·Final
110–134
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
POR31233323110
LAL36313631134

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAL) / 10 (POR) games this season
POR away
home LAL
27% 73%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Malcolm Brogdon S 33 23 7 9
Anfernee Simons S 30 19 2 3
Jerami Grant S 33 17 3 3
Duop Reath 22 16 3 4
Jabari Walker S 22 12 7 0
Rayan Rupert 6 6 1 0
Deandre Ayton S 22 6 4 0
Toumani Camara 23 5 5 1
Scoot Henderson 23 4 1 2
Taze Moore 4 2 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
D'Angelo Russell S 34 34 1 8
LeBron James S 31 28 5 5
Austin Reaves S 26 15 4 2
Anthony Davis S 26 14 14 3
Cam Reddish 21 10 4 1
Rui Hachimura S 23 9 2 2
Jarred Vanderbilt 21 4 4 2
Jaxson Hayes 4 4 1 0
Colin Castleton 4 4 2 0
Max Christie 22 4 1 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Rui Hachimura · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:09 Q1
"Rui Hachimura makes 23-foot three point shot (LeBron James assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Anthony Davis LAL
13%
2 LeBron James LAL
12%
3 Austin Reaves LAL
11%
4 Deandre Ayton POR
10%
5 Jerami Grant POR
9%
6 Anfernee Simons POR
9%
7 D'Angelo Russell LAL
8%
8 Malcolm Brogdon POR
8%
9 Jabari Walker POR
7%
10 Matisse Thybulle POR
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
3%
Dunk
9%
Free Throw
24%
Jumper
23%
Layup
41%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 LeBron James LAL 25.9 6.3 8.2
2 Anthony Davis LAL 25.3 11.3 5.8
3 Jerami Grant POR 21.0 3.7 2.6
4 Anfernee Simons POR 19.9 4.0 4.5
5 D'Angelo Russell LAL 19.9 2.6 6.5
6 Austin Reaves LAL 17.6 3.7 6.5
7 Malcolm Brogdon POR 15.9 3.4 4.1
8 Scoot Henderson POR 15.1 4.1 5.6
9 Deandre Ayton POR 14.2 10.3 1.9
10 Duop Reath POR 13.0 6.5 1.6
11 Jabari Walker POR 12.1 7.8 1.6
12 Rui Hachimura LAL 11.0 3.5 1.3
13 Toumani Camara POR 9.1 5.5 1.5
14 Christian Wood LAL 8.9 6.0 1.4
15 Max Christie LAL 6.8 3.4 1.4
16 Jarred Vanderbilt LAL 6.5 4.6 1.5
17 Kris Murray POR 6.0 2.3 1.2
18 Matisse Thybulle POR 5.7 2.2 1.1
19 Cam Reddish LAL 5.7 1.6 1.5
20 Colin Castleton LAL 4.8 4.2 0.8
21 Jaxson Hayes LAL 3.3 1.9 0.8
22 Jalen Hood-Schifino LAL 3.3 1.7 0.8
23 Ibou Badji POR 3.1 4.0 0.7
24 Rayan Rupert POR 2.9 1.4 0.8
25 Maxwell Lewis LAL 2.8 1.2 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.