NBA games

IND @ PHX

NBA Mortgage Matchup Center ·Final
110–117
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
IND25362227110
PHX33322626117

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHX) / 10 (IND) games this season
IND away
home PHX
33% 67%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Buddy Hield S 31 18 4 3
Jalen Smith 19 15 4 1
Pascal Siakam S 30 15 4 7
Obi Toppin 26 13 6 1
Myles Turner S 19 12 2 1
Jarace Walker 18 10 9 1
Andrew Nembhard 25 9 0 6
Aaron Nesmith S 26 6 3 1
Ben Sheppard 20 4 4 4
Bennedict Mathurin 14 4 3 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kevin Durant S 40 40 9 2
Devin Booker S 36 26 6 8
Bradley Beal S 38 25 4 3
Grayson Allen S 32 13 2 2
Jusuf Nurkic S 19 4 13 4
Eric Gordon 30 4 3 2
Drew Eubanks 11 3 2 0
Chimezie Metu 7 2 1 1
Josh Okogie 15 0 2 2
Keita Bates-Diop 12 0 2 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Myles Turner · Layup (2 pts) · 11:25 Q1
"Myles Turner makes finger roll layup (Pascal Siakam assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Devin Booker PHX
12%
2 Kevin Durant PHX
12%
3 Myles Turner IND
11%
4 Bradley Beal PHX
11%
5 Pascal Siakam IND
11%
6 Jusuf Nurkic PHX
10%
7 Andrew Nembhard IND
9%
8 Aaron Nesmith IND
9%
9 Grayson Allen PHX
8%
10 Buddy Hield IND
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
14%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
32%
Jumper
21%
Layup
29%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Devin Booker PHX 26.4 3.9 6.9
2 Kevin Durant PHX 25.5 6.2 6.4
3 Pascal Siakam IND 24.1 4.9 4.0
4 Bradley Beal PHX 22.9 4.8 4.5
5 Myles Turner IND 17.8 6.9 2.2
6 Bennedict Mathurin IND 16.6 3.6 2.7
7 Grayson Allen PHX 16.3 3.9 3.5
8 Jusuf Nurkic PHX 13.2 10.3 3.4
9 Buddy Hield IND 12.4 3.3 3.0
10 Aaron Nesmith IND 11.8 3.9 1.7
11 Eric Gordon PHX 11.4 2.7 1.6
12 Andrew Nembhard IND 10.5 2.3 4.5
13 Obi Toppin IND 9.4 3.4 2.1
14 Jalen Smith IND 9.4 5.5 1.5
15 T.J. McConnell IND 9.3 3.0 6.1
16 Chimezie Metu PHX 6.0 3.3 1.0
17 Nassir Little PHX 5.0 2.5 0.8
18 Jarace Walker IND 4.5 1.5 1.2
19 Josh Okogie PHX 4.3 1.9 1.4
20 Keita Bates-Diop PHX 3.9 1.9 1.0
21 Ben Sheppard IND 3.5 1.7 0.9
22 Jordan Goodwin PHX 3.2 2.2 1.1
23 Drew Eubanks PHX 3.1 3.3 0.4
24 Isaiah Wong IND 2.4 1.1 0.9
25 Oscar Tshiebwe IND 2.1 1.3 0.3
26 Yuta Watanabe PHX 2.1 0.8 0.4
27 Kendall Brown IND 1.9 0.8 0.3
28 James Johnson IND 1.3 0.8 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.