NBA games

BOS @ HOU

NBA Toyota Center (Houston) ·Final
116–107
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
BOS35352026116
HOU25302527107

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (HOU) / 10 (BOS) games this season
BOS away
home HOU
64% 36%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kristaps Porzingis S 33 32 6 1
Derrick White S 36 21 11 3
Jayson Tatum S 35 18 7 3
Jaylen Brown S 31 13 11 10
Payton Pritchard 30 9 2 4
Sam Hauser S 31 9 7 6
Luke Kornet 23 8 9 1
Oshae Brissett 18 6 2 3
Neemias Queta 3 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Dillon Brooks S 40 25 5 1
Alperen Sengun S 36 24 12 10
Jalen Green S 32 16 4 5
Amen Thompson S 32 15 14 5
Aaron Holiday 27 12 4 5
Cam Whitmore S 27 5 4 0
Nate Williams 19 5 3 0
Jock Landale 11 3 3 0
Jae'Sean Tate 15 2 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jayson Tatum · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:27 Q1
"Jayson Tatum makes 1-foot dunk (Jaylen Brown assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Alperen Sengun HOU
20%
2 Jaylen Brown BOS
15%
3 Kristaps Porzingis BOS
15%
4 Jalen Green HOU
14%
5 Jayson Tatum BOS
13%
6 Dillon Brooks HOU
12%
7 Derrick White BOS
10%
8 Sam Hauser BOS
0%
9 Oshae Brissett BOS
0%
10 Luke Kornet BOS
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
4%
Dunk
9%
Free Throw
18%
Jumper
29%
Layup
39%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jayson Tatum BOS 25.9 8.1 5.2
2 Alperen Sengun HOU 24.8 9.7 4.3
3 Jaylen Brown BOS 23.7 5.7 3.6
4 Kristaps Porzingis BOS 19.2 6.6 3.0
5 Jalen Green HOU 17.5 5.0 3.8
6 Derrick White BOS 14.3 4.1 4.1
7 Dillon Brooks HOU 12.5 3.4 1.5
8 Cam Whitmore HOU 10.1 3.9 1.1
9 Payton Pritchard BOS 9.2 3.2 2.5
10 Sam Hauser BOS 6.8 3.6 1.1
11 Amen Thompson HOU 6.6 4.1 1.8
12 Oshae Brissett BOS 5.4 3.9 0.9
13 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 5.2 3.4 1.4
14 Neemias Queta BOS 5.0 4.8 0.7
15 Aaron Holiday HOU 4.9 1.8 1.0
16 Luke Kornet BOS 4.5 4.3 1.1
17 Nate Williams HOU 4.0 1.4 0.4
18 Lamar Stevens BOS 3.3 2.0 0.7
19 Svi Mykhailiuk BOS 3.2 1.4 0.7
20 Dalano Banton BOS 2.6 1.4 0.8
21 Jordan Walsh BOS 2.6 3.0 0.6
22 Jock Landale HOU 2.2 2.0 0.3
23 Jermaine Samuels Jr. HOU 2.2 1.5 0.5
24 Boban Marjanovic HOU 2.2 2.2 0.5
25 Nate Hinton HOU 2.2 1.0 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.