NBA games

DEN @ WSH

NBA Capital One Arena ·Final
113–104
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DEN33292724113
WSH24282626104

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (WSH) / 10 (DEN) games this season
DEN away
home WSH
64% 36%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nikola Jokic S 36 42 12 8
Michael Porter Jr. S 32 19 5 0
Jamal Murray S 39 19 5 7
Aaron Gordon S 31 11 10 2
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope S 35 10 3 3
Reggie Jackson 21 3 1 3
DeAndre Jordan 7 3 4 0
Christian Braun 21 2 6 2
Zeke Nnaji 5 2 1 2
Peyton Watson 13 2 3 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kyle Kuzma S 33 17 6 7
Daniel Gafford S 30 15 7 2
Tyus Jones S 31 15 2 13
Marvin Bagley III 18 14 7 1
Landry Shamet 16 14 1 3
Bilal Coulibaly 31 9 3 1
Delon Wright 17 6 2 0
Corey Kispert 18 6 3 1
Deni Avdija S 18 4 8 3
Jordan Poole S 28 4 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Nikola Jokic · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:43 Q1
"Nikola Jokic makes 4-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Nikola Jokic DEN
13%
2 Kyle Kuzma WSH
12%
3 Aaron Gordon DEN
10%
4 Jamal Murray DEN
10%
5 Daniel Gafford WSH
9%
6 Jordan Poole WSH
9%
7 Deni Avdija WSH
8%
8 Marvin Bagley III WSH
8%
9 Tyus Jones WSH
7%
10 Michael Porter Jr. DEN
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
9%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
25%
Jumper
27%
Layup
31%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Nikola Jokic DEN 27.1 12.6 9.5
2 Jamal Murray DEN 24.7 4.3 7.8
3 Kyle Kuzma WSH 22.3 7.0 4.6
4 Deni Avdija WSH 17.7 7.0 4.4
5 Jordan Poole WSH 16.9 2.7 3.4
6 Aaron Gordon DEN 16.2 6.9 2.8
7 Michael Porter Jr. DEN 16.2 5.6 1.7
8 Tyus Jones WSH 13.1 2.8 6.9
9 Marvin Bagley III WSH 11.2 5.7 1.3
10 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope DEN 10.9 3.3 2.1
11 Corey Kispert WSH 10.6 2.5 1.9
12 Reggie Jackson DEN 9.7 2.5 3.2
13 Daniel Gafford WSH 9.2 7.0 1.2
14 Bilal Coulibaly WSH 8.4 4.6 1.8
15 Peyton Watson DEN 8.3 3.5 1.0
16 Landry Shamet WSH 7.0 1.6 1.3
17 Christian Braun DEN 6.0 3.2 1.0
18 Delon Wright WSH 5.8 2.1 2.5
19 Trey Jemison III WSH 5.3 5.5 1.5
20 Isaiah Livers WSH 5.2 1.9 1.0
21 Patrick Baldwin Jr. WSH 4.5 2.6 0.8
22 Justin Holiday DEN 3.9 1.6 1.1
23 Hunter Tyson DEN 3.8 1.8 0.8
24 DeAndre Jordan DEN 3.5 4.6 0.6
25 Eugene Omoruyi WSH 3.1 1.1 0.4
26 Anthony Gill WSH 2.5 1.5 0.4
27 Jay Huff DEN 2.4 1.3 0.4
28 Zeke Nnaji DEN 2.2 1.5 0.5
29 Jalen Pickett DEN 2.0 0.7 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.