NBA games

MIA @ ORL

NBA Kia Center ·Final
87–105
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIA1927231887
ORL22263324105

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ORL) / 10 (MIA) games this season
MIA away
home ORL
43% 57%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Bam Adebayo S 34 22 11 7
Jimmy Butler III S 29 15 4 2
Tyler Herro S 33 12 1 2
Caleb Martin S 31 11 4 4
Kevin Love 14 9 6 0
Duncan Robinson 21 6 1 1
Haywood Highsmith 25 5 2 1
Josh Richardson 9 3 2 0
Nikola Jovic S 15 2 3 0
Kyle Lowry 25 2 2 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Paolo Banchero S 31 20 10 2
Franz Wagner S 28 19 2 5
Wendell Carter Jr. S 34 17 9 2
Markelle Fultz S 29 12 1 4
Jalen Suggs S 29 11 4 1
Moritz Wagner 11 8 4 0
Jonathan Isaac 14 6 1 0
Anthony Black 14 6 0 1
Cole Anthony 16 5 6 2
Jett Howard 3 1 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jimmy Butler III · 3PT (3 pts) · 10:32 Q1
"Jimmy Butler makes 25-foot three point jumper (Bam Adebayo assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jimmy Butler III MIA
18%
2 Paolo Banchero ORL
12%
3 Tyler Herro MIA
11%
4 Bam Adebayo MIA
11%
5 Franz Wagner ORL
9%
6 Jalen Suggs ORL
7%
7 Goga Bitadze ORL
7%
8 Nikola Jovic MIA
6%
9 Caleb Houstan ORL
6%
10 Caleb Martin MIA
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
14%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
25%
Jumper
17%
Layup
38%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Paolo Banchero ORL 26.0 7.3 6.2
2 Franz Wagner ORL 21.9 5.9 4.2
3 Bam Adebayo MIA 21.6 10.3 4.7
4 Tyler Herro MIA 21.4 5.7 4.3
5 Jimmy Butler III MIA 20.8 5.1 5.2
6 Jalen Suggs ORL 14.1 3.9 2.2
7 Duncan Robinson MIA 12.0 2.6 2.8
8 Cole Anthony ORL 10.7 3.7 2.4
9 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 10.5 5.2 1.8
10 Moritz Wagner ORL 10.3 5.6 1.8
11 Kevin Love MIA 9.9 6.1 2.3
12 Markelle Fultz ORL 9.0 3.5 3.5
13 Josh Richardson MIA 8.9 3.0 1.5
14 Caleb Houstan ORL 8.8 2.3 1.5
15 Caleb Martin MIA 8.7 4.2 1.8
16 Chuma Okeke ORL 8.1 4.6 1.5
17 Kyle Lowry MIA 7.2 3.1 3.4
18 Joe Ingles ORL 7.2 2.5 3.3
19 Nikola Jovic MIA 6.9 4.5 2.0
20 Goga Bitadze ORL 6.9 7.9 1.6
21 Haywood Highsmith MIA 5.8 3.3 0.9
22 Trevelin Queen ORL 5.8 2.0 1.2
23 Jonathan Isaac ORL 5.7 3.5 0.7
24 Anthony Black ORL 5.3 2.4 1.8
25 Jett Howard ORL 3.1 1.2 0.6
26 Thomas Bryant MIA 3.0 2.3 0.5
27 Orlando Robinson MIA 2.5 2.3 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.