NBA games

OKC @ MIN

NBA Target Center ·Final
102–97
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
OKC30271728102
MIN2430291497

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIN) / 10 (OKC) games this season
OKC away
home MIN
57% 43%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 37 33 2 6
Jalen Williams S 36 20 5 3
Chet Holmgren S 33 15 5 2
Luguentz Dort S 33 14 5 1
Josh Giddey S 25 5 8 4
Jaylin Williams 12 5 1 0
Isaiah Joe 22 5 5 5
Aaron Wiggins 12 5 0 0
Cason Wallace 13 0 3 0
Vasilije Micic 8 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Edwards S 38 19 5 5
Karl-Anthony Towns S 36 19 11 2
Naz Reid 26 18 3 0
Jaden McDaniels S 27 15 2 0
Jordan McLaughlin 13 8 2 3
Rudy Gobert S 33 7 18 2
Kyle Anderson 19 5 1 4
Mike Conley S 29 3 3 4
Nickeil Alexander-Walker 19 3 5 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:46 Q1
"Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Rudy Gobert MIN
12%
2 Chet Holmgren OKC
11%
3 Anthony Edwards MIN
11%
4 Jalen Williams OKC
11%
5 Karl-Anthony Towns MIN
10%
6 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
9%
7 Luguentz Dort OKC
8%
8 Jaden McDaniels MIN
7%
9 Josh Giddey OKC
7%
10 Cason Wallace OKC
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
28%
Free Throw
41%
Jumper
11%
Layup
18%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 30.3 6.0 6.3
2 Anthony Edwards MIN 26.1 5.6 5.5
3 Karl-Anthony Towns MIN 24.2 7.3 4.1
4 Jalen Williams OKC 22.1 4.8 6.1
5 Chet Holmgren OKC 17.1 5.8 3.5
6 Rudy Gobert MIN 15.4 12.6 1.7
7 Josh Giddey OKC 12.9 6.4 5.3
8 Jaden McDaniels MIN 12.7 3.4 2.0
9 Naz Reid MIN 12.2 5.5 1.7
10 Luguentz Dort OKC 11.2 3.9 1.7
11 Mike Conley MIN 10.4 2.7 6.8
12 Isaiah Joe OKC 7.4 2.7 1.2
13 Cason Wallace OKC 6.9 2.6 1.3
14 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN 6.9 2.2 2.2
15 Kyle Anderson MIN 6.8 3.4 3.4
16 Aaron Wiggins OKC 5.1 2.2 1.2
17 Vasilije Micic OKC 4.9 1.4 2.2
18 Jordan McLaughlin MIN 4.6 2.0 2.1
19 Kenrich Williams OKC 4.4 3.0 1.2
20 Lindy Waters III OKC 4.1 1.5 0.8
21 Daishen Nix MIN 3.9 1.3 1.3
22 Jaylin Williams OKC 3.4 2.6 1.2
23 Olivier Sarr OKC 2.9 2.8 0.4
24 Shake Milton MIN 2.9 0.8 0.8
25 Tre Mann OKC 2.7 1.3 1.2
26 Troy Brown Jr. MIN 2.6 1.2 0.9
27 Wendell Moore Jr. MIN 2.6 1.2 0.6
28 Davis Bertans OKC 2.3 0.8 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.