NBA games

UTAH @ HOU

NBA Toyota Center (Houston) ·Final
126–127
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q5T
UTAH2427382611126
HOU3133252612127

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (HOU) / 10 (UTAH) games this season
UTAH away
home HOU
65% 35%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jordan Clarkson 39 33 12 4
Collin Sexton S 40 28 3 5
Lauri Markkanen S 39 22 9 1
Simone Fontecchio S 29 10 7 3
Kris Dunn S 27 10 8 7
Walker Kessler 32 7 10 3
John Collins S 20 7 6 2
Kelly Olynyk 16 6 3 1
Keyonte George 10 3 1 2
Ochai Agbaji 13 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Alperen Sengun S 42 37 14 6
Jabari Smith Jr. S 41 24 10 1
Fred VanVleet S 34 18 5 7
Cam Whitmore 27 17 5 1
Dillon Brooks S 35 7 5 1
Jalen Green S 28 7 3 4
Amen Thompson 18 6 8 2
Aaron Holiday 9 6 0 0
Jeff Green 16 3 3 2
Jae'Sean Tate 14 2 3 3

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Dillon Brooks · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:06 Q1
"Dillon Brooks makes 12-foot pullup jump shot (Alperen Sengun assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Alperen Sengun HOU
14%
2 Jalen Green HOU
13%
3 Dillon Brooks HOU
11%
4 John Collins UTAH
11%
5 Collin Sexton UTAH
10%
6 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU
9%
7 Lauri Markkanen UTAH
8%
8 Fred VanVleet HOU
8%
9 Kris Dunn UTAH
8%
10 Simone Fontecchio UTAH
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
9%
Free Throw
30%
Jumper
21%
Layup
38%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Alperen Sengun HOU 24.3 8.3 4.8
2 Lauri Markkanen UTAH 24.2 9.2 2.8
3 Jordan Clarkson UTAH 22.5 4.2 5.7
4 Collin Sexton UTAH 22.3 2.9 5.5
5 Jalen Green HOU 18.7 4.9 3.8
6 Fred VanVleet HOU 16.9 3.6 8.5
7 John Collins UTAH 15.6 6.4 2.1
8 Talen Horton-Tucker UTAH 14.2 2.4 3.5
9 Dillon Brooks HOU 13.7 3.5 1.7
10 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 12.8 7.9 1.8
11 Keyonte George UTAH 11.4 2.8 3.3
12 Simone Fontecchio UTAH 10.7 4.1 2.3
13 Cam Whitmore HOU 9.4 3.5 1.0
14 Walker Kessler UTAH 8.0 7.4 0.8
15 Kelly Olynyk UTAH 7.8 4.2 3.6
16 Kris Dunn UTAH 6.6 3.4 4.7
17 Amen Thompson HOU 6.6 3.5 2.4
18 Jeff Green HOU 6.5 2.2 1.1
19 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 5.6 3.2 1.3
20 Ochai Agbaji UTAH 4.9 3.2 1.0
21 Nate Williams HOU 3.9 1.3 0.5
22 Aaron Holiday HOU 3.8 1.3 1.2
23 Luka Samanic UTAH 3.0 1.7 0.4
24 Omer Yurtseven UTAH 2.4 3.4 0.5
25 Jock Landale HOU 2.1 1.7 0.4
26 Boban Marjanovic HOU 2.0 2.0 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.