NBA games

MEM @ CHI

NBA United Center ·Final
96–125
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MEM1723292796
CHI21293639125

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CHI) / 10 (MEM) games this season
MEM away
home CHI
39% 61%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaren Jackson Jr. S 33 26 6 5
Vince Williams Jr. S 30 14 5 2
Luke Kennard S 30 14 2 6
David Roddy 32 11 2 3
GG Jackson 19 10 1 0
Ziaire Williams 22 8 1 1
Santi Aldama S 28 5 8 3
Scotty Pippen Jr. 5 3 1 1
Jacob Gilyard 16 3 1 1
John Konchar S 27 2 5 6
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Ayo Dosunmu 28 20 6 4
DeMar DeRozan S 37 18 4 8
Coby White S 36 17 5 5
Patrick Williams S 27 15 5 0
Andre Drummond 19 15 10 1
Jevon Carter 17 12 1 5
Nikola Vucevic S 25 11 11 3
Alex Caruso S 25 8 3 1
Dalen Terry 18 7 5 3
Terry Taylor 4 2 2 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Patrick Williams · 3PT (3 pts) · 10:35 Q1
"Patrick Williams makes 23-foot three point jumper (Coby White assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 DeMar DeRozan CHI
15%
2 Nikola Vucevic CHI
13%
3 Coby White CHI
13%
4 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM
12%
5 Alex Caruso CHI
11%
6 Xavier Tillman MEM
11%
7 John Konchar MEM
10%
8 Vince Williams Jr. MEM
8%
9 Luke Kennard MEM
7%
10 GG Jackson MEM
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
10%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
17%
Jumper
30%
Layup
36%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Coby White CHI 24.0 5.2 5.4
2 DeMar DeRozan CHI 22.0 4.9 4.8
3 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM 21.5 5.5 2.8
4 Nikola Vucevic CHI 20.2 10.7 3.8
5 Alex Caruso CHI 11.2 4.0 3.1
6 Ayo Dosunmu CHI 11.0 3.2 2.6
7 Patrick Williams CHI 10.9 2.9 2.1
8 Vince Williams Jr. MEM 10.6 6.0 3.5
9 Luke Kennard MEM 10.5 3.3 2.9
10 Andre Drummond CHI 9.5 9.8 1.1
11 David Roddy MEM 8.1 2.8 1.6
12 Ziaire Williams MEM 8.0 2.9 1.4
13 Torrey Craig CHI 8.0 4.2 1.1
14 Xavier Tillman MEM 7.3 5.5 1.8
15 Santi Aldama MEM 7.2 4.8 1.2
16 Jevon Carter CHI 5.7 1.5 1.1
17 Jacob Gilyard MEM 5.2 1.5 3.3
18 GG Jackson MEM 5.0 2.5 0.7
19 John Konchar MEM 4.3 3.5 1.2
20 Dalen Terry CHI 3.7 1.7 1.4
21 Jake LaRavia MEM 2.8 1.1 0.5
22 Terry Taylor CHI 2.4 1.6 0.4
23 Julian Phillips CHI 1.3 0.8 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.