NBA games

TOR @ NY

NBA Madison Square Garden ·Final
100–126
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
TOR31262122100
NY31283334126

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NY) / 10 (TOR) games this season
TOR away
home NY
16% 84%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
RJ Barrett S 29 20 8 4
Gary Trent Jr. S 26 16 1 0
Immanuel Quickley S 31 12 2 11
Gradey Dick 16 11 2 1
Scottie Barnes S 33 9 6 7
Bruce Brown 22 8 3 0
Jontay Porter S 21 6 2 1
Chris Boucher 12 5 2 1
Thaddeus Young 15 4 2 1
Jordan Nwora 4 3 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Brunson S 35 38 5 9
Precious Achiuwa 25 18 11 0
Julius Randle S 32 18 16 10
Donte DiVincenzo S 20 17 3 1
OG Anunoby S 37 14 7 1
Josh Hart 26 10 9 1
Quentin Grimes 20 4 4 1
Malachi Flynn 3 3 1 1
Miles McBride 13 3 0 1
Isaiah Hartenstein S 23 1 4 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jalen Brunson · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:40 Q1
"Jalen Brunson makes 6-foot running pullup jump shot (Isaiah Hartenstein assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Julius Randle NY
14%
2 Jalen Brunson NY
13%
3 OG Anunoby NY
11%
4 Scottie Barnes TOR
11%
5 Isaiah Hartenstein NY
11%
6 RJ Barrett TOR
10%
7 Immanuel Quickley TOR
9%
8 Donte DiVincenzo NY
7%
9 Jontay Porter TOR
7%
10 Gary Trent Jr. TOR
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
12%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
33%
Jumper
33%
Layup
18%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Brunson NY 27.4 4.1 8.4
2 Julius Randle NY 26.3 7.6 5.5
3 RJ Barrett TOR 21.7 6.6 3.8
4 Scottie Barnes TOR 19.7 5.1 5.2
5 Immanuel Quickley TOR 18.1 4.5 5.2
6 OG Anunoby NY 15.6 5.1 1.9
7 Donte DiVincenzo NY 13.3 3.8 3.8
8 Dennis Schroder TOR 13.1 2.8 4.4
9 Bruce Brown TOR 12.5 4.9 3.2
10 Gary Trent Jr. TOR 10.7 2.6 1.6
11 Isaiah Hartenstein NY 10.2 11.0 3.3
12 Josh Hart NY 8.8 7.5 2.4
13 Quentin Grimes NY 7.8 2.4 1.5
14 Miles McBride NY 7.8 1.9 1.8
15 Evan Fournier NY 7.2 1.9 1.0
16 Chris Boucher TOR 5.5 4.7 0.9
17 Jontay Porter TOR 5.1 3.5 1.8
18 Thaddeus Young TOR 4.6 2.6 1.9
19 Jalen McDaniels TOR 3.7 1.4 0.6
20 Precious Achiuwa NY 3.7 3.4 0.6
21 Jordan Nwora TOR 3.1 1.2 0.6
22 Malachi Flynn NY 3.1 1.2 1.1
23 Gradey Dick TOR 2.7 0.9 0.8
24 Garrett Temple TOR 2.0 0.9 0.6
25 Jericho Sims NY 2.0 1.2 0.4
26 Ryan Arcidiacono NY 2.0 0.9 0.6
27 Otto Porter Jr. TOR 1.6 1.1 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.