NBA games

CLE @ ATL

NBA State Farm Arena ·Final
116–95
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CLE25343423116
ATL2025252595

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ATL) / 10 (CLE) games this season
CLE away
home ATL
87% 13%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Sam Merrill 30 18 4 6
Donovan Mitchell S 36 18 6 8
Dean Wade S 26 17 5 0
Jarrett Allen S 33 14 11 2
Georges Niang 21 14 5 2
Max Strus S 20 13 3 7
Isaac Okoro S 33 12 5 2
Tristan Thompson 14 6 5 2
Craig Porter Jr. 21 4 5 3
Damian Jones 3 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Dejounte Murray S 35 24 9 5
Jalen Johnson S 34 20 7 4
Trae Young S 28 15 1 5
Bogdan Bogdanovic 28 14 2 4
Patty Mills 10 6 0 0
Clint Capela S 22 6 9 0
Garrison Mathews 14 4 2 2
Seth Lundy 3 3 0 0
AJ Griffin 3 2 0 0
Onyeka Okongwu 23 1 6 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jarrett Allen · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:43 Q1
"Jarrett Allen makes 9-foot two point shot (Max Strus assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jarrett Allen CLE
15%
2 Trae Young ATL
12%
3 Dejounte Murray ATL
11%
4 Jalen Johnson ATL
9%
5 Donovan Mitchell CLE
9%
6 Clint Capela ATL
9%
7 Bogdan Bogdanovic ATL
8%
8 Saddiq Bey ATL
8%
9 Max Strus CLE
7%
10 Isaac Okoro CLE
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
13%
Free Throw
15%
Jumper
30%
Layup
40%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Donovan Mitchell CLE 28.3 4.7 7.8
2 Trae Young ATL 26.0 3.6 9.3
3 Dejounte Murray ATL 24.0 5.2 4.4
4 Jarrett Allen CLE 19.6 13.2 4.8
5 Caris LeVert CLE 19.4 3.6 5.6
6 Jalen Johnson ATL 18.0 8.2 4.2
7 Bogdan Bogdanovic ATL 14.0 3.0 2.2
8 Saddiq Bey ATL 12.3 5.5 1.4
9 Isaac Okoro CLE 11.7 3.3 2.3
10 Max Strus CLE 11.5 4.2 3.7
11 Georges Niang CLE 11.1 4.1 1.7
12 Sam Merrill CLE 10.6 3.2 2.2
13 Clint Capela ATL 9.6 9.2 1.0
14 Onyeka Okongwu ATL 9.6 6.1 1.2
15 Craig Porter Jr. CLE 8.7 4.2 4.2
16 Dean Wade CLE 6.0 3.9 1.3
17 Garrison Mathews ATL 5.0 1.5 0.9
18 Tristan Thompson CLE 4.9 4.1 1.4
19 Trent Forrest ATL 3.9 1.9 1.6
20 Patty Mills ATL 3.4 1.2 0.8
21 Damian Jones CLE 2.5 1.4 0.6
22 Bruno Fernando ATL 2.5 2.0 0.3
23 AJ Griffin ATL 1.9 0.6 0.3
24 Seth Lundy ATL 1.8 0.6 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.