NBA games

SA @ WSH

NBA Capital One Arena ·Final
131–127
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SA37352831131
WSH36303427127

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (WSH) / 10 (SA) games this season
SA away
home WSH
52% 48%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Victor Wembanyama S 28 24 8 4
Jeremy Sochan S 28 23 4 3
Devin Vassell S 34 21 5 5
Keldon Johnson 28 19 9 2
Tre Jones S 32 11 8 12
Julian Champagnie S 23 11 7 0
Zach Collins 20 8 3 3
Blake Wesley 15 6 1 3
Doug McDermott 10 3 0 1
Cedi Osman 17 3 3 4
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Marvin Bagley III S 36 21 12 2
Jordan Poole S 29 16 0 2
Corey Kispert 25 16 2 2
Deni Avdija S 32 16 7 4
Bilal Coulibaly 23 14 4 1
Tyus Jones S 28 13 2 6
Kyle Kuzma S 29 11 12 6
Patrick Baldwin Jr. 12 7 2 0
Landry Shamet 6 7 1 1
Delon Wright 20 6 4 4

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Marvin Bagley III · Layup (2 pts) · 11:23 Q1
"Marvin Bagley III makes 3-foot layup (Tyus Jones assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Kyle Kuzma WSH
18%
2 Deni Avdija WSH
10%
3 Victor Wembanyama SA
10%
4 Jordan Poole WSH
9%
5 Devin Vassell SA
9%
6 Marvin Bagley III WSH
8%
7 Jeremy Sochan SA
8%
8 Tyus Jones WSH
8%
9 Tre Jones SA
7%
10 Zach Collins SA
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
20%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
19%
Jumper
25%
Layup
31%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Victor Wembanyama SA 24.0 9.6 4.0
2 Kyle Kuzma WSH 23.6 6.8 4.3
3 Deni Avdija WSH 18.7 7.8 4.5
4 Keldon Johnson SA 18.5 4.8 3.3
5 Devin Vassell SA 17.6 4.0 4.0
6 Jordan Poole WSH 16.5 2.9 3.5
7 Tre Jones SA 14.0 4.2 6.0
8 Jeremy Sochan SA 13.4 6.1 4.0
9 Zach Collins SA 13.4 5.7 2.6
10 Tyus Jones WSH 13.1 3.2 6.8
11 Corey Kispert WSH 10.4 2.5 1.7
12 Marvin Bagley III WSH 9.6 5.2 1.1
13 Landry Shamet WSH 7.8 1.8 1.4
14 Bilal Coulibaly WSH 7.7 4.9 2.0
15 Mamadi Diakite SA 7.5 3.1 0.8
16 Malaki Branham SA 7.0 2.0 1.6
17 Dominick Barlow SA 7.0 5.7 1.8
18 Cedi Osman SA 6.9 3.3 1.7
19 Julian Champagnie SA 6.8 2.9 1.7
20 Delon Wright WSH 6.0 2.1 2.4
21 Doug McDermott SA 5.9 1.5 0.9
22 Trey Jemison III WSH 5.6 6.1 1.5
23 Isaiah Livers WSH 5.3 2.1 1.0
24 Blake Wesley SA 5.1 2.1 1.8
25 Devonte' Graham SA 4.4 1.7 1.8
26 Patrick Baldwin Jr. WSH 4.1 2.6 0.8
27 Jared Butler WSH 4.0 0.8 1.7
28 Sandro Mamukelashvili SA 3.6 2.4 1.0
29 Anthony Gill WSH 2.6 1.7 0.5
30 Jules Bernard WSH 2.1 0.8 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.