NBA games

PHI @ CHA

NBA Spectrum Center ·Final
97–89
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHI2422232897
CHA2421281689

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CHA) / 10 (PHI) games this season
PHI away
home CHA
53% 47%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Joel Embiid S 37 33 10 5
Tobias Harris S 36 21 5 6
Tyrese Maxey S 42 16 3 8
Nicolas Batum S 29 9 5 1
Danuel House Jr. 27 9 3 0
Kelly Oubre Jr. S 27 5 8 0
Paul Reed 11 2 8 0
Furkan Korkmaz 16 2 4 1
Marcus Morris Sr. 14 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Miles Bridges S 40 25 11 3
Brandon Miller S 35 23 7 3
Terry Rozier S 36 19 9 6
P.J. Washington S 26 9 3 0
JT Thor 22 7 6 0
Cody Martin S 29 4 6 3
Ish Smith 19 2 2 5
Bryce McGowens 2 0 0 0
Nick Smith Jr. 15 0 0 1
Nate Mensah 18 0 3 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Joel Embiid · Layup (2 pts) · 10:20 Q1
"Joel Embiid makes layup (Nicolas Batum assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Joel Embiid PHI
45%
2 Tyrese Maxey PHI
9%
3 Miles Bridges CHA
8%
4 Tobias Harris PHI
8%
5 Terry Rozier CHA
7%
6 P.J. Washington CHA
6%
7 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI
6%
8 Brandon Miller CHA
5%
9 Nicolas Batum PHI
4%
10 Marcus Morris Sr. PHI
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
0%
Free Throw
23%
Jumper
17%
Layup
59%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Joel Embiid PHI 33.4 10.4 6.5
2 Tyrese Maxey PHI 26.9 3.5 6.9
3 Terry Rozier CHA 25.6 4.3 6.1
4 Miles Bridges CHA 23.5 6.7 3.9
5 Tobias Harris PHI 22.0 6.3 3.7
6 Brandon Miller CHA 13.5 3.8 2.4
7 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI 12.7 4.2 1.9
8 P.J. Washington CHA 12.3 5.8 2.0
9 Cody Martin CHA 8.8 3.5 2.3
10 Nick Smith Jr. CHA 8.3 3.2 1.6
11 Nicolas Batum PHI 7.7 4.1 2.6
12 Marcus Morris Sr. PHI 7.7 3.7 1.0
13 Paul Reed PHI 6.7 5.1 1.4
14 Bryce McGowens CHA 5.4 1.4 1.2
15 Ish Smith CHA 5.1 2.4 2.9
16 Terquavion Smith PHI 4.6 1.4 0.7
17 Frank Ntilikina CHA 4.4 2.0 2.0
18 James Bouknight CHA 4.4 1.4 0.8
19 JT Thor CHA 4.1 3.3 0.7
20 Danuel House Jr. PHI 3.9 1.9 0.8
21 Nate Mensah CHA 3.9 3.5 0.7
22 Ricky Council IV PHI 3.2 1.5 0.6
23 KJ Martin PHI 2.9 1.5 0.7
24 Leaky Black CHA 2.7 1.5 0.6
25 Furkan Korkmaz PHI 2.6 1.1 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.