NBA games

MIL @ DET

NBA Little Caesars Arena ·Final
141–135
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIL34363338141
DET38293137135

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DET) / 10 (MIL) games this season
MIL away
home DET
57% 43%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Damian Lillard S 37 45 6 11
Giannis Antetokounmpo S 38 31 10 9
Brook Lopez S 37 19 10 4
Khris Middleton S 33 17 5 4
Malik Beasley S 34 11 2 1
Pat Connaughton 14 10 4 1
Bobby Portis 17 4 3 0
Andre Jackson Jr. 15 2 7 0
Jae Crowder 14 2 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Alec Burks 30 33 7 6
Ausar Thompson 32 22 9 1
Bojan Bogdanovic S 32 19 1 2
Jaden Ivey S 33 18 6 6
Mike Muscala 14 13 1 1
Marcus Sasser 16 9 1 5
Danilo Gallinari 16 8 1 3
Jalen Duren S 30 8 9 1
Kevin Knox II S 16 3 3 0
Killian Hayes S 18 2 1 5

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Bojan Bogdanovic · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:33 Q1
"Bojan Bogdanovic makes 11-foot pullup jump shot (Killian Hayes assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Damian Lillard MIL
14%
2 Jalen Duren DET
12%
3 Khris Middleton MIL
11%
4 Jaden Ivey DET
10%
5 Bojan Bogdanovic DET
10%
6 Killian Hayes DET
8%
7 Isaiah Stewart DET
7%
8 Brook Lopez MIL
7%
9 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL
7%
10 Malik Beasley MIL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
20%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
12%
Jumper
41%
Layup
23%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL 33.1 12.0 8.7
2 Damian Lillard MIL 22.7 3.7 6.4
3 Bojan Bogdanovic DET 21.8 4.9 3.6
4 Jaden Ivey DET 20.5 4.8 5.6
5 Jalen Duren DET 18.8 11.4 3.2
6 Khris Middleton MIL 18.4 3.7 7.3
7 Alec Burks DET 17.5 2.9 2.2
8 Brook Lopez MIL 13.5 6.1 2.2
9 Isaiah Stewart DET 12.1 6.0 2.8
10 Bobby Portis MIL 11.7 6.0 1.2
11 Kevin Knox II DET 11.4 3.1 1.6
12 Malik Beasley MIL 11.1 3.2 1.5
13 Jae Crowder MIL 9.5 3.5 1.7
14 Cameron Payne MIL 6.7 1.3 1.9
15 Killian Hayes DET 6.4 2.7 5.9
16 Pat Connaughton MIL 6.1 2.3 1.7
17 MarJon Beauchamp MIL 5.6 2.4 1.3
18 Ausar Thompson DET 5.6 4.9 1.1
19 Mike Muscala DET 5.3 3.9 1.2
20 James Wiseman DET 5.0 3.9 0.5
21 AJ Green MIL 4.6 1.4 0.9
22 Danilo Gallinari DET 4.4 2.1 0.7
23 Marcus Sasser DET 4.4 1.6 2.6
24 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 4.3 3.1 1.1
25 Joe Harris DET 2.7 1.1 0.6
26 Robin Lopez MIL 2.6 0.9 0.6
27 Thanasis Antetokounmpo MIL 2.5 1.5 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.