NBA games

IND @ POR

NBA Moda Center ·Final
115–118
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
IND31222834115
POR34302430118

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (POR) / 10 (IND) games this season
IND away
home POR
42% 58%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Myles Turner S 34 29 12 1
Pascal Siakam S 34 21 6 3
Tyrese Haliburton S 35 21 2 17
Buddy Hield S 36 18 6 7
Aaron Nesmith S 28 12 4 2
Jalen Smith 14 7 3 0
Ben Sheppard 10 3 1 0
Bennedict Mathurin 23 2 3 0
T.J. McConnell 13 2 0 2
Obi Toppin 11 0 0 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jerami Grant S 43 37 4 3
Malcolm Brogdon S 37 30 7 6
Jabari Walker S 41 13 12 3
Deandre Ayton S 30 12 8 1
Scoot Henderson 8 10 2 1
Kris Murray 14 5 3 0
Toumani Camara 19 4 4 0
Matisse Thybulle S 28 4 1 2
Duop Reath 18 3 5 2
Justin Minaya 2 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Deandre Ayton · Layup (2 pts) · 11:25 Q1
"Deandre Ayton makes 1-foot layup (Jabari Walker assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Tyrese Haliburton IND
11%
2 Myles Turner IND
10%
3 Deandre Ayton POR
10%
4 Jerami Grant POR
8%
5 Bennedict Mathurin IND
8%
6 Pascal Siakam IND
8%
7 T.J. McConnell IND
7%
8 Malcolm Brogdon POR
7%
9 Aaron Nesmith IND
6%
10 Jabari Walker POR
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
28%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
11%
Jumper
35%
Layup
19%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Pascal Siakam IND 25.2 5.1 5.2
2 Tyrese Haliburton IND 22.5 3.9 13.0
3 Jerami Grant POR 21.4 4.0 3.0
4 Bennedict Mathurin IND 19.2 4.5 2.9
5 Scoot Henderson POR 17.0 4.4 6.2
6 Myles Turner IND 16.8 6.6 2.2
7 Malcolm Brogdon POR 14.3 3.1 4.0
8 Deandre Ayton POR 13.8 10.0 1.7
9 Duop Reath POR 12.4 6.1 1.5
10 Aaron Nesmith IND 11.7 3.9 1.5
11 Jabari Walker POR 11.7 7.7 1.6
12 Obi Toppin IND 11.5 3.9 2.3
13 Buddy Hield IND 11.3 3.2 2.3
14 T.J. McConnell IND 10.6 3.6 7.1
15 Jalen Smith IND 9.9 5.8 1.8
16 Toumani Camara POR 9.0 5.7 1.5
17 Matisse Thybulle POR 5.8 2.2 1.2
18 Kris Murray POR 5.7 2.0 1.2
19 Jarace Walker IND 4.9 1.7 1.3
20 Ben Sheppard IND 4.1 1.7 0.9
21 Ibou Badji POR 3.9 4.3 0.9
22 Rayan Rupert POR 3.0 1.4 0.8
23 Isaiah Wong IND 2.8 1.2 1.0
24 Oscar Tshiebwe IND 2.6 1.5 0.4
25 Justin Minaya POR 2.4 1.1 0.5
26 Kendall Brown IND 2.3 1.0 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.