NBA games

PHX @ NO

NBA Smoothie King Center ·Final
123–109
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHX41283123123
NO28242829109

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NO) / 10 (PHX) games this season
PHX away
home NO
49% 51%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Devin Booker S 37 52 4 5
Kevin Durant S 35 26 5 2
Bradley Beal S 31 13 7 5
Grayson Allen S 32 12 4 6
Eric Gordon 26 5 2 0
Jusuf Nurkic S 35 5 15 9
Udoka Azubuike 12 3 1 1
Josh Okogie 6 3 3 2
Chimezie Metu 14 2 4 1
Jordan Goodwin 4 2 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Zion Williamson S 33 24 3 1
Brandon Ingram S 33 17 7 11
Jonas Valanciunas S 26 16 11 3
CJ McCollum S 31 13 4 4
Jordan Hawkins 17 13 2 1
Herbert Jones S 23 9 3 2
Trey Murphy III 24 5 2 1
Naji Marshall 13 5 0 1
Larry Nance Jr. 18 3 5 1
Dyson Daniels 11 2 3 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Brandon Ingram · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:35 Q1
"Brandon Ingram makes 15-foot running pullup jump shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Zion Williamson NO
14%
2 Brandon Ingram NO
12%
3 Devin Booker PHX
11%
4 Kevin Durant PHX
11%
5 Bradley Beal PHX
11%
6 Jusuf Nurkic PHX
10%
7 Jonas Valanciunas NO
8%
8 CJ McCollum NO
8%
9 Grayson Allen PHX
7%
10 Herbert Jones NO
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
10%
Free Throw
38%
Jumper
14%
Layup
36%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Kevin Durant PHX 25.0 6.5 6.3
2 Devin Booker PHX 25.0 4.0 6.9
3 Zion Williamson NO 22.3 6.2 5.6
4 Bradley Beal PHX 21.4 4.5 5.0
5 CJ McCollum NO 19.4 4.8 5.9
6 Brandon Ingram NO 19.2 4.6 6.3
7 Grayson Allen PHX 15.8 3.9 3.4
8 Jusuf Nurkic PHX 13.7 10.2 2.5
9 Jonas Valanciunas NO 11.6 8.4 1.9
10 Trey Murphy III NO 11.6 3.6 2.3
11 Herbert Jones NO 11.5 3.3 1.9
12 Eric Gordon PHX 10.9 2.6 1.7
13 Jordan Hawkins NO 9.2 2.2 1.3
14 Larry Nance Jr. NO 8.7 5.7 1.8
15 Jose Alvarado NO 7.3 2.1 1.4
16 Naji Marshall NO 6.8 2.8 1.2
17 Dyson Daniels NO 6.7 3.2 2.6
18 Chimezie Metu PHX 6.3 3.4 0.9
19 Josh Okogie PHX 4.0 1.9 1.2
20 Drew Eubanks PHX 3.8 3.5 0.5
21 Nassir Little PHX 3.7 2.2 0.6
22 Cody Zeller NO 3.3 2.3 1.1
23 Keita Bates-Diop PHX 2.9 1.3 0.7
24 Udoka Azubuike PHX 2.3 2.0 0.3
25 Yuta Watanabe PHX 2.1 0.8 0.3
26 Jordan Goodwin PHX 2.0 1.7 1.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.