NBA games

ATL @ MIA

NBA Kaseya Center ·Final
109–108
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ATL32252428109
MIA24322725108

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIA) / 10 (ATL) games this season
ATL away
home MIA
70% 30%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Dejounte Murray S 40 22 3 11
Bogdan Bogdanovic S 35 17 3 1
Jalen Johnson S 34 15 7 2
Saddiq Bey S 36 14 2 0
Patty Mills 18 11 3 2
Garrison Mathews 20 9 3 3
Onyeka Okongwu 26 9 5 1
Clint Capela S 22 9 11 0
Trent Forrest 10 3 1 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jimmy Butler III S 36 25 5 6
Tyler Herro S 35 25 6 2
Bam Adebayo S 39 21 9 6
Duncan Robinson 22 14 2 1
Caleb Martin S 27 10 8 1
Josh Richardson 21 9 3 0
Kyle Lowry 24 2 3 4
Nikola Jovic S 15 2 3 0
Kevin Love 12 0 5 1
Haywood Highsmith 10 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Dejounte Murray · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:18 Q1
"Dejounte Murray makes 25-foot running pullup jump shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Bam Adebayo MIA
16%
2 Jimmy Butler III MIA
14%
3 Dejounte Murray ATL
13%
4 Tyler Herro MIA
12%
5 Jalen Johnson ATL
11%
6 Clint Capela ATL
10%
7 Saddiq Bey ATL
9%
8 Nikola Jovic MIA
8%
9 Kyle Lowry MIA
6%
10 Bogdan Bogdanovic ATL
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
15%
Free Throw
18%
Jumper
38%
Layup
27%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Dejounte Murray ATL 23.2 5.6 3.9
2 Bam Adebayo MIA 23.0 11.8 5.2
3 Tyler Herro MIA 22.9 6.1 4.9
4 Jimmy Butler III MIA 20.9 5.0 5.8
5 Jalen Johnson ATL 18.0 9.7 4.5
6 Bogdan Bogdanovic ATL 13.0 3.1 2.5
7 Duncan Robinson MIA 13.0 3.0 3.4
8 Saddiq Bey ATL 12.1 6.1 1.7
9 Kevin Love MIA 10.3 5.6 2.2
10 Josh Richardson MIA 10.0 3.1 2.0
11 Caleb Martin MIA 9.9 4.8 2.4
12 Clint Capela ATL 9.8 9.3 1.1
13 Onyeka Okongwu ATL 9.4 6.5 1.2
14 Nikola Jovic MIA 7.6 4.4 2.3
15 Kyle Lowry MIA 7.6 3.1 3.9
16 Haywood Highsmith MIA 6.8 3.7 1.4
17 Cole Swider MIA 4.7 1.4 0.8
18 Garrison Mathews ATL 4.5 1.6 0.9
19 Thomas Bryant MIA 3.7 2.8 0.8
20 Orlando Robinson MIA 3.2 2.7 1.0
21 Trent Forrest ATL 3.0 1.6 1.4
22 Bruno Fernando ATL 2.8 2.3 0.3
23 AJ Griffin ATL 2.2 0.8 0.4
24 Seth Lundy ATL 2.1 0.8 0.4
25 Patty Mills ATL 1.9 0.8 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.