NBA games

DEN @ BOS

NBA TD Garden ·Final
102–100
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DEN31242621102
BOS32292118100

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (BOS) / 10 (DEN) games this season
DEN away
home BOS
49% 51%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jamal Murray S 37 35 8 5
Nikola Jokic S 38 34 12 9
Michael Porter Jr. S 37 13 8 0
Peyton Watson 21 9 2 0
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope S 37 5 5 1
Reggie Jackson 21 4 2 2
Aaron Gordon S 42 2 10 3
Justin Holiday 3 0 0 0
Christian Braun 5 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Derrick White S 36 24 3 5
Jayson Tatum S 39 22 8 5
Kristaps Porzingis S 36 21 8 2
Jaylen Brown S 36 13 2 1
Jrue Holiday S 30 7 2 3
Al Horford 27 6 10 2
Luke Kornet 8 4 2 1
Payton Pritchard 12 3 2 1
Sam Hauser 16 0 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Kristaps Porzingis · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:47 Q1
"Kristaps Porzingis makes dunk (Jayson Tatum assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Kristaps Porzingis BOS
10%
2 Aaron Gordon DEN
10%
3 Jaylen Brown BOS
10%
4 Jamal Murray DEN
10%
5 Jrue Holiday BOS
9%
6 Jayson Tatum BOS
9%
7 Luke Kornet BOS
8%
8 Nikola Jokic DEN
8%
9 Derrick White BOS
7%
10 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope DEN
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
26%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
22%
Jumper
21%
Layup
26%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jayson Tatum BOS 26.4 7.5 5.6
2 Nikola Jokic DEN 25.9 12.1 8.7
3 Jaylen Brown BOS 25.2 6.2 4.2
4 Jamal Murray DEN 23.6 3.8 8.0
5 Kristaps Porzingis BOS 19.6 6.5 2.9
6 Aaron Gordon DEN 16.4 6.0 2.4
7 Jrue Holiday BOS 14.8 4.7 4.3
8 Michael Porter Jr. DEN 14.7 5.2 1.5
9 Derrick White BOS 13.5 4.1 4.1
10 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope DEN 10.6 2.9 2.2
11 Payton Pritchard BOS 10.1 3.1 3.0
12 Al Horford BOS 9.6 5.8 2.4
13 Reggie Jackson DEN 9.1 2.1 3.5
14 Peyton Watson DEN 8.3 3.2 1.0
15 Sam Hauser BOS 7.8 3.9 1.0
16 Christian Braun DEN 5.9 3.1 1.1
17 Oshae Brissett BOS 5.8 3.8 1.0
18 Neemias Queta BOS 5.3 4.7 0.8
19 Luke Kornet BOS 4.9 3.9 1.1
20 Svi Mykhailiuk BOS 3.6 1.4 0.8
21 Hunter Tyson DEN 3.5 1.7 0.7
22 DeAndre Jordan DEN 3.5 4.8 0.7
23 Lamar Stevens BOS 3.5 2.0 0.7
24 Justin Holiday DEN 3.1 1.0 0.8
25 Dalano Banton BOS 2.9 1.5 0.9
26 Jay Huff DEN 2.1 1.3 0.3
27 Collin Gillespie DEN 2.0 0.7 0.4
28 Zeke Nnaji DEN 1.9 1.5 0.4
29 Braxton Key DEN 1.6 0.9 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.