NBA games

PHI @ ORL

NBA Kia Center ·Final
124–109
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHI32362135124
ORL34261633109

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ORL) / 10 (PHI) games this season
PHI away
home ORL
68% 32%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Joel Embiid S 31 36 7 2
Tyrese Maxey S 34 32 3 5
Kelly Oubre Jr. S 32 15 4 2
Tobias Harris S 35 12 6 3
Marcus Morris Sr. 26 10 9 0
Terquavion Smith 2 6 0 0
Patrick Beverley 28 5 6 4
Nicolas Batum S 20 3 2 5
KJ Martin 2 2 0 0
Paul Reed 15 2 5 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Wendell Carter Jr. 26 25 11 0
Jalen Suggs S 25 16 2 2
Paolo Banchero S 32 14 8 6
Joe Ingles 22 9 1 3
Chuma Okeke S 20 8 1 0
Jonathan Isaac 13 7 3 1
Markelle Fultz 22 7 1 3
Anthony Black 13 7 3 3
Jett Howard 3 5 0 0
Moritz Wagner 6 4 0 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Joel Embiid · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:45 Q1
"Joel Embiid makes 15-foot step back jumpshot (Nicolas Batum assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Joel Embiid PHI
31%
2 Tobias Harris PHI
12%
3 Paolo Banchero ORL
11%
4 Tyrese Maxey PHI
10%
5 Goga Bitadze ORL
8%
6 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI
7%
7 Caleb Houstan ORL
6%
8 Chuma Okeke ORL
6%
9 Jalen Suggs ORL
5%
10 Nicolas Batum PHI
5%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
0%
Free Throw
26%
Jumper
43%
Layup
29%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Joel Embiid PHI 33.2 10.8 6.3
2 Paolo Banchero ORL 27.9 7.5 6.1
3 Tyrese Maxey PHI 25.8 3.8 6.3
4 Tobias Harris PHI 22.5 6.0 3.6
5 Jalen Suggs ORL 13.7 4.2 2.3
6 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI 12.8 4.3 1.9
7 Cole Anthony ORL 12.1 4.0 2.5
8 Markelle Fultz ORL 9.9 4.2 3.6
9 Moritz Wagner ORL 9.7 5.7 1.5
10 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 9.4 4.8 1.7
11 Caleb Houstan ORL 9.2 2.4 1.5
12 Goga Bitadze ORL 8.7 9.0 1.6
13 Chuma Okeke ORL 8.3 5.3 1.4
14 Paul Reed PHI 7.9 5.5 1.4
15 Marcus Morris Sr. PHI 7.6 3.2 0.8
16 Patrick Beverley PHI 7.6 3.4 3.1
17 Joe Ingles ORL 7.6 2.8 3.7
18 Nicolas Batum PHI 7.1 3.9 2.1
19 Jonathan Isaac ORL 5.6 3.9 0.7
20 Trevelin Queen ORL 5.3 1.9 1.2
21 Anthony Black ORL 4.5 2.2 1.5
22 Terquavion Smith PHI 4.2 1.4 0.7
23 Danuel House Jr. PHI 2.8 1.3 0.4
24 Jett Howard ORL 2.6 0.7 0.5
25 Furkan Korkmaz PHI 2.3 0.9 0.5
26 Ricky Council IV PHI 2.0 0.9 0.2
27 KJ Martin PHI 1.7 0.8 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.