NBA games

SA @ CHA

NBA Spectrum Center ·Final
120–124
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SA32262735120
CHA34323127124

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CHA) / 10 (SA) games this season
SA away
home CHA
56% 44%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Keldon Johnson 29 25 4 3
Devin Vassell S 36 17 5 7
Zach Collins S 26 16 4 4
Tre Jones S 32 16 2 4
Dominick Barlow 19 12 4 2
Jeremy Sochan S 34 11 8 8
Julian Champagnie S 19 9 2 3
Blake Wesley 15 9 1 2
Cedi Osman 13 5 3 1
Malaki Branham 8 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
LaMelo Ball S 32 28 1 8
Brandon Miller S 35 24 9 2
Miles Bridges S 39 23 6 3
P.J. Washington S 28 20 6 0
Terry Rozier S 34 17 6 8
Cody Martin 25 5 3 3
Nick Smith Jr. 18 5 4 0
JT Thor 9 2 2 0
Nate Mensah 20 0 3 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Brandon Miller · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:23 Q1
"Brandon Miller makes 25-foot three point jumper (Terry Rozier assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Miles Bridges CHA
21%
2 LaMelo Ball CHA
12%
3 Devin Vassell SA
11%
4 Jeremy Sochan SA
10%
5 Terry Rozier CHA
9%
6 Tre Jones SA
8%
7 Zach Collins SA
8%
8 Brandon Miller CHA
8%
9 Cody Martin CHA
7%
10 Julian Champagnie SA
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
31%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
14%
Jumper
27%
Layup
21%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 LaMelo Ball CHA 27.9 6.2 8.0
2 Terry Rozier CHA 25.3 4.2 6.3
3 Miles Bridges CHA 23.2 6.4 4.1
4 Devin Vassell SA 18.7 3.8 3.8
5 Keldon Johnson SA 16.5 4.5 3.1
6 Tre Jones SA 13.8 4.4 6.0
7 Jeremy Sochan SA 12.6 5.5 3.6
8 Brandon Miller CHA 12.5 3.3 2.0
9 P.J. Washington CHA 11.3 5.4 2.0
10 Zach Collins SA 10.4 4.8 1.6
11 Cody Martin CHA 9.1 3.4 2.4
12 Nick Smith Jr. CHA 8.5 3.2 2.1
13 Malaki Branham SA 8.4 2.5 2.0
14 Mamadi Diakite SA 7.5 3.2 0.7
15 Cedi Osman SA 6.7 3.4 1.8
16 Julian Champagnie SA 6.2 2.8 1.5
17 Dominick Barlow SA 5.9 4.9 1.6
18 Doug McDermott SA 5.5 1.4 0.8
19 Ish Smith CHA 5.2 2.5 3.1
20 James Bouknight CHA 4.6 1.5 0.8
21 Frank Ntilikina CHA 4.5 2.0 2.1
22 Devonte' Graham SA 4.4 1.8 1.8
23 Blake Wesley SA 4.1 2.0 1.7
24 JT Thor CHA 4.1 3.1 0.8
25 Nate Mensah CHA 3.9 3.4 0.7
26 Sandro Mamukelashvili SA 3.6 2.5 1.0
27 Leaky Black CHA 2.9 1.7 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.