NBA games

IND @ SAC

NBA Golden 1 Center ·Final
126121
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
IND34362927126
SAC31263232121

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SAC) / 10 (IND) games this season
IND away
home SAC
54% 46%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Bennedict Mathurin S 37 25 3 4
T.J. McConnell S 33 20 1 10
Myles Turner S 32 18 2 1
Jalen Smith S 25 17 13 1
Jarace Walker 20 15 2 2
Buddy Hield S 36 12 5 8
Obi Toppin 24 10 3 4
Ben Sheppard 28 7 4 2
Isaiah Jackson 5 2 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kevin Huerter S 39 31 2 4
Keegan Murray S 38 27 9 0
De'Aaron Fox S 40 24 6 6
Domantas Sabonis S 38 21 11 10
Malik Monk 26 9 3 4
Sasha Vezenkov 11 7 3 0
Harrison Barnes S 22 2 1 1
Keon Ellis 2 0 0 0
Alex Len 5 0 0 0
Trey Lyles 19 0 3 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Buddy Hield · Layup (2 pts) · 11:44 Q1
"Buddy Hield makes 4-foot layup (Myles Turner assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 De'Aaron Fox SAC
16%
2 Domantas Sabonis SAC
12%
3 Myles Turner IND
11%
4 Bennedict Mathurin IND
11%
5 Keegan Murray SAC
11%
6 Jalen Smith IND
8%
7 Buddy Hield IND
8%
8 Harrison Barnes SAC
8%
9 Chris Duarte SAC
8%
10 Kevin Huerter SAC
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
14%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
21%
Jumper
43%
Layup
16%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 De'Aaron Fox SAC 24.3 3.6 5.3
2 Domantas Sabonis SAC 24.1 14.0 10.2
3 Malik Monk SAC 20.0 3.7 6.5
4 Bennedict Mathurin IND 18.0 3.7 2.5
5 Keegan Murray SAC 17.1 5.6 2.0
6 Myles Turner IND 16.6 6.4 2.2
7 Obi Toppin IND 11.2 4.1 2.1
8 T.J. McConnell IND 9.6 2.9 6.2
9 Harrison Barnes SAC 9.6 2.4 1.3
10 Jalen Smith IND 9.3 4.8 1.7
11 Buddy Hield IND 9.0 2.5 1.7
12 Trey Lyles SAC 8.4 3.7 1.3
13 Kevin Huerter SAC 8.1 3.3 1.8
14 Isaiah Jackson IND 5.9 4.1 1.0
15 Sasha Vezenkov SAC 4.7 2.3 0.7
16 Chris Duarte SAC 4.7 2.1 1.1
17 Jarace Walker IND 3.8 1.3 1.1
18 Alex Len SAC 3.3 3.7 1.2
19 JaVale McGee SAC 3.1 2.5 0.5
20 Keon Ellis SAC 3.0 1.1 0.8
21 Ben Sheppard IND 2.9 1.0 0.8
22 Oscar Tshiebwe IND 2.7 1.4 0.6
23 Davion Mitchell SAC 2.7 0.9 0.8
24 Kessler Edwards SAC 2.6 0.8 0.4
25 Kendall Brown IND 2.4 1.0 0.6
26 Juan Toscano-Anderson SAC 1.7 1.1 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.