NBA games

MEM @ MIN

NBA Target Center ·Final
103–118
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MEM30253117103
MIN30203137118

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIN) / 10 (MEM) games this season
MEM away
home MIN
25% 75%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaren Jackson Jr. S 27 36 3 1
Luke Kennard S 31 18 2 2
Santi Aldama 25 13 5 0
Xavier Tillman S 36 10 5 6
Vince Williams Jr. S 35 10 7 5
David Roddy 23 8 4 1
John Konchar S 27 5 3 2
Ziaire Williams 12 2 1 2
GG Jackson 10 1 3 0
Jacob Gilyard 13 0 1 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Edwards S 34 28 5 5
Naz Reid 24 20 3 1
Rudy Gobert S 39 17 10 4
Mike Conley S 30 17 4 10
Karl-Anthony Towns S 29 14 7 2
Jaden McDaniels S 36 11 3 0
Nickeil Alexander-Walker 25 7 2 5
Kyle Anderson 15 4 3 3
Luka Garza 1 0 0 0
Jordan McLaughlin 7 0 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Rudy Gobert MIN
13%
2 Karl-Anthony Towns MIN
12%
3 Anthony Edwards MIN
12%
4 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM
12%
5 Jaden McDaniels MIN
9%
6 Xavier Tillman MEM
9%
7 Ziaire Williams MEM
8%
8 Mike Conley MIN
8%
9 Vince Williams Jr. MEM
8%
10 Luke Kennard MEM
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
26%
Free Throw
21%
Jumper
12%
Layup
41%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Anthony Edwards MIN 27.2 5.5 5.2
2 Karl-Anthony Towns MIN 24.4 7.5 4.1
3 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM 19.7 5.9 2.6
4 Rudy Gobert MIN 15.7 12.2 1.5
5 Naz Reid MIN 12.6 5.6 1.7
6 Jaden McDaniels MIN 12.1 3.5 2.0
7 Mike Conley MIN 10.3 2.7 6.3
8 Vince Williams Jr. MEM 10.2 5.8 3.1
9 Luke Kennard MEM 8.5 3.0 2.3
10 Ziaire Williams MEM 7.8 2.7 1.2
11 David Roddy MEM 7.5 2.6 1.4
12 Kyle Anderson MIN 6.8 3.6 3.7
13 Santi Aldama MEM 6.7 4.4 1.2
14 GG Jackson MEM 6.6 2.2 0.6
15 Derrick Rose MEM 6.5 1.8 3.2
16 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN 6.5 2.3 1.8
17 Xavier Tillman MEM 5.8 4.6 1.6
18 Jacob Gilyard MEM 4.8 1.2 2.9
19 Jordan McLaughlin MIN 4.6 1.8 2.2
20 Luka Garza MIN 3.8 1.4 0.7
21 Shake Milton MIN 3.4 1.2 0.8
22 Troy Brown Jr. MIN 3.1 1.5 0.9
23 John Konchar MEM 3.0 3.2 0.8
24 Jake LaRavia MEM 3.0 1.1 0.4
25 Wendell Moore Jr. MIN 1.5 0.9 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.