NBA games

OKC @ UTAH

NBA Delta Center ·Final
134–129
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
OKC39372236134
UTAH27402834129

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (UTAH) / 10 (OKC) games this season
OKC away
home UTAH
30% 70%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 35 31 6 6
Jalen Williams S 37 27 3 8
Josh Giddey S 30 20 10 6
Cason Wallace S 32 16 4 1
Chet Holmgren S 32 15 5 5
Kenrich Williams 17 9 4 2
Vasilije Micic 9 6 0 1
Isaiah Joe 12 6 2 1
Aaron Wiggins 22 4 2 5
Lindy Waters III 3 0 0 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Collin Sexton S 34 31 1 7
Lauri Markkanen S 36 26 10 4
John Collins S 24 21 4 1
Jordan Clarkson 35 18 2 5
Simone Fontecchio S 29 12 5 2
Kelly Olynyk 17 7 2 4
Walker Kessler 24 7 11 1
Ochai Agbaji 14 4 1 1
Keyonte George 14 3 1 2
Kris Dunn S 13 0 1 6

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:10 Q1
"Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes 13-foot step back jumpshot (Jalen Williams assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
16%
2 John Collins UTAH
14%
3 Chet Holmgren OKC
12%
4 Lauri Markkanen UTAH
11%
5 Jalen Williams OKC
11%
6 Collin Sexton UTAH
10%
7 Kris Dunn UTAH
9%
8 Josh Giddey OKC
8%
9 Simone Fontecchio UTAH
8%
10 Jordan Clarkson UTAH
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
4%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
79%
Jumper
3%
Layup
13%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 30.0 5.7 6.5
2 Lauri Markkanen UTAH 23.0 8.6 2.6
3 Jalen Williams OKC 22.2 4.9 6.2
4 Collin Sexton UTAH 21.9 2.9 5.7
5 Jordan Clarkson UTAH 21.1 4.2 5.7
6 Chet Holmgren OKC 17.5 6.1 3.6
7 John Collins UTAH 14.5 6.5 1.9
8 Talen Horton-Tucker UTAH 14.3 2.3 3.5
9 Keyonte George UTAH 13.2 3.0 3.4
10 Josh Giddey OKC 13.1 6.0 5.1
11 Simone Fontecchio UTAH 10.7 4.2 2.3
12 Kelly Olynyk UTAH 9.0 4.6 4.6
13 Walker Kessler UTAH 8.2 7.0 0.9
14 Isaiah Joe OKC 7.5 2.7 1.4
15 Cason Wallace OKC 6.6 2.5 1.3
16 Kris Dunn UTAH 6.2 3.4 4.8
17 Aaron Wiggins OKC 5.1 2.3 0.9
18 Vasilije Micic OKC 5.0 1.4 2.4
19 Kenrich Williams OKC 4.5 3.0 1.1
20 Taylor Hendricks UTAH 4.3 2.2 0.6
21 Ochai Agbaji UTAH 4.2 2.9 0.9
22 Olivier Sarr OKC 3.6 3.1 0.6
23 Jaylin Williams OKC 3.4 2.5 1.3
24 Luka Samanic UTAH 3.4 1.9 0.6
25 Lindy Waters III OKC 3.2 1.0 0.6
26 Tre Mann OKC 2.9 1.4 1.3
27 Omer Yurtseven UTAH 2.8 3.5 0.7
28 Aleksej Pokusevski OKC 2.5 1.1 0.7
29 Davis Bertans OKC 2.4 0.8 0.6
30 Brice Sensabaugh UTAH 2.2 0.9 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.