NBA games

CHI @ TOR

NBA Scotiabank Arena ·Final
116–110
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CHI38252726116
TOR27312824110

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (TOR) / 10 (CHI) games this season
CHI away
home TOR
45% 55%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nikola Vucevic S 35 24 14 7
DeMar DeRozan S 38 24 7 6
Coby White S 35 23 8 4
Patrick Williams 23 12 0 1
Ayo Dosunmu 32 10 1 5
Alex Caruso S 28 10 3 4
Zach LaVine S 24 8 2 3
Andre Drummond 10 5 4 0
Jevon Carter 3 0 0 0
Dalen Terry 12 0 3 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Scottie Barnes S 37 31 7 6
RJ Barrett S 35 17 4 6
Bruce Brown 25 15 7 1
Immanuel Quickley S 35 12 3 3
Jontay Porter S 20 10 4 4
Dennis Schroder 26 7 0 5
Gary Trent Jr. S 30 6 2 2
Chris Boucher 18 6 9 2
Thaddeus Young 15 6 2 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Gary Trent Jr. · Jumper (2 pts) · 10:45 Q1
"Gary Trent Jr. makes 18-foot pullup jump shot (RJ Barrett assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Coby White CHI
13%
2 Scottie Barnes TOR
11%
3 Nikola Vucevic CHI
11%
4 Zach LaVine CHI
10%
5 RJ Barrett TOR
9%
6 Immanuel Quickley TOR
9%
7 DeMar DeRozan CHI
8%
8 Bruce Brown TOR
8%
9 Alex Caruso CHI
8%
10 Jontay Porter TOR
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
30%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
9%
Jumper
30%
Layup
26%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Coby White CHI 22.7 4.7 5.2
2 DeMar DeRozan CHI 22.3 4.6 4.9
3 RJ Barrett TOR 21.9 7.1 3.8
4 Scottie Barnes TOR 19.9 5.7 5.2
5 Nikola Vucevic CHI 19.8 9.9 3.7
6 Zach LaVine CHI 19.6 5.3 5.5
7 Immanuel Quickley TOR 18.4 4.4 5.4
8 Dennis Schroder TOR 16.7 3.1 5.3
9 Bruce Brown TOR 12.9 5.1 3.5
10 Gary Trent Jr. TOR 12.0 2.8 2.0
11 Patrick Williams CHI 11.1 3.0 2.0
12 Ayo Dosunmu CHI 11.1 3.2 2.4
13 Alex Caruso CHI 10.9 4.0 3.3
14 Andre Drummond CHI 9.5 9.9 1.2
15 Torrey Craig CHI 8.0 4.1 1.1
16 Chris Boucher TOR 5.7 4.2 0.8
17 Jevon Carter CHI 5.2 1.4 1.1
18 Jontay Porter TOR 5.2 3.6 1.7
19 Javon Freeman-Liberty TOR 5.0 2.6 0.9
20 Jalen McDaniels TOR 4.6 1.8 0.8
21 Thaddeus Young TOR 4.3 2.7 2.0
22 Jordan Nwora TOR 4.2 1.7 0.9
23 Dalen Terry CHI 3.5 1.7 1.4
24 Gradey Dick TOR 3.5 1.4 1.0
25 Terry Taylor CHI 2.8 1.8 0.6
26 Garrett Temple TOR 2.7 1.3 0.7
27 Kira Lewis Jr. TOR 2.1 1.0 0.8

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.