NBA games

WSH @ NY

NBA Madison Square Garden ·Final
109–113
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
WSH22232737109
NY22242740113

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NY) / 10 (WSH) games this season
WSH away
home NY
13% 87%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jordan Poole S 34 24 4 2
Marvin Bagley III S 39 20 11 2
Kyle Kuzma S 39 15 6 5
Deni Avdija S 26 15 8 1
Landry Shamet 14 13 1 1
Corey Kispert 17 10 4 0
Bilal Coulibaly 17 5 3 2
Delon Wright 11 5 2 1
Tyus Jones S 37 2 4 15
Patrick Baldwin Jr. 6 0 3 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Brunson S 40 41 8 8
Julius Randle S 39 21 8 5
Donte DiVincenzo S 38 19 3 3
OG Anunoby S 43 19 7 1
Isaiah Hartenstein S 39 6 17 3
Miles McBride 8 5 1 0
Precious Achiuwa 9 2 1 0
Quentin Grimes 19 0 1 2
Evan Fournier 6 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Deni Avdija · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:40 Q1
"Deni Avdija makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Kyle Kuzma WSH
21%
2 Jalen Brunson NY
13%
3 Julius Randle NY
12%
4 OG Anunoby NY
10%
5 Jordan Poole WSH
9%
6 Deni Avdija WSH
9%
7 Isaiah Hartenstein NY
9%
8 Tyus Jones WSH
8%
9 Donte DiVincenzo NY
7%
10 Marvin Bagley III WSH
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
25%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
14%
Jumper
31%
Layup
22%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Julius Randle NY 27.7 8.0 5.6
2 Jalen Brunson NY 26.8 4.0 8.6
3 Kyle Kuzma WSH 22.3 6.4 4.2
4 Deni Avdija WSH 17.8 6.9 4.2
5 Donte DiVincenzo NY 16.5 4.5 3.7
6 OG Anunoby NY 15.3 4.9 2.0
7 Jordan Poole WSH 14.3 2.6 3.5
8 Tyus Jones WSH 12.9 2.9 5.7
9 Isaiah Hartenstein NY 11.0 13.1 3.7
10 Corey Kispert WSH 10.0 2.0 1.8
11 Miles McBride NY 8.7 2.2 1.9
12 Quentin Grimes NY 8.2 2.7 1.4
13 Evan Fournier NY 7.1 1.9 0.9
14 Marvin Bagley III WSH 6.9 3.2 0.5
15 Bilal Coulibaly WSH 6.9 4.6 1.8
16 Landry Shamet WSH 5.8 1.4 1.2
17 Isaiah Livers WSH 5.2 1.9 0.9
18 Delon Wright WSH 5.0 1.9 2.2
19 Malachi Flynn NY 3.9 1.6 1.2
20 Precious Achiuwa NY 3.8 3.9 0.7
21 Patrick Baldwin Jr. WSH 3.2 2.0 0.6
22 Anthony Gill WSH 2.7 1.7 0.5
23 Ryan Arcidiacono NY 2.7 1.5 0.7
24 Johnny Davis WSH 2.1 1.0 0.4
25 Jericho Sims NY 2.1 1.4 0.4
26 Jules Bernard WSH 1.8 0.6 0.3
27 DaQuan Jeffries NY 1.7 0.7 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.