NBA games

BKN @ POR

NBA Moda Center ·Final
103–105
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
BKN23293120103
POR24272331105

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (POR) / 10 (BKN) games this season
BKN away
home POR
45% 55%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Mikal Bridges S 34 21 4 4
Spencer Dinwiddie S 32 19 2 7
Cameron Johnson S 27 13 3 5
Lonnie Walker IV 19 13 1 0
Nic Claxton S 32 12 12 0
Cam Thomas 22 8 0 4
Dorian Finney-Smith S 32 7 5 1
Trendon Watford 8 6 0 2
Dennis Smith Jr. 14 2 3 2
Royce O'Neale 20 2 3 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jerami Grant S 36 30 8 1
Anfernee Simons S 39 20 4 4
Duop Reath S 25 17 7 3
Malcolm Brogdon S 30 16 5 6
Scoot Henderson 23 7 3 3
Toumani Camara 20 6 6 1
Jabari Walker S 30 4 6 0
Matisse Thybulle 21 3 0 3
Ibou Badji 13 2 2 0
Kris Murray 3 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Nic Claxton · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:36 Q1
"Nic Claxton makes 1-foot two point shot (Spencer Dinwiddie assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Anfernee Simons POR
13%
2 Deandre Ayton POR
11%
3 Jerami Grant POR
9%
4 Scoot Henderson POR
9%
5 Mikal Bridges BKN
8%
6 Spencer Dinwiddie BKN
8%
7 Nic Claxton BKN
8%
8 Cameron Johnson BKN
7%
9 Jabari Walker POR
7%
10 Toumani Camara POR
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
25%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
20%
Jumper
16%
Layup
33%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Mikal Bridges BKN 22.6 5.5 3.9
2 Anfernee Simons POR 21.9 4.0 4.6
3 Scoot Henderson POR 18.2 4.4 6.3
4 Jerami Grant POR 18.0 3.5 2.6
5 Nic Claxton BKN 14.5 11.6 2.3
6 Malcolm Brogdon POR 14.3 3.3 4.3
7 Cam Thomas BKN 14.0 2.7 2.0
8 Cameron Johnson BKN 13.5 4.0 2.3
9 Deandre Ayton POR 13.3 10.1 1.7
10 Jabari Walker POR 11.9 7.4 1.5
11 Duop Reath POR 11.5 6.1 1.2
12 Spencer Dinwiddie BKN 10.8 3.0 4.9
13 Dennis Smith Jr. BKN 9.8 4.0 5.2
14 Lonnie Walker IV BKN 8.8 2.5 1.4
15 Toumani Camara POR 8.6 5.4 1.4
16 Dorian Finney-Smith BKN 8.3 4.3 1.6
17 Day'Ron Sharpe BKN 7.9 6.5 1.7
18 Royce O'Neale BKN 7.4 3.6 2.6
19 Trendon Watford BKN 5.2 2.6 1.2
20 Matisse Thybulle POR 5.2 2.1 0.9
21 Kris Murray POR 5.1 2.0 1.1
22 Rayan Rupert POR 3.3 1.7 0.9
23 Harry Giles III BKN 3.0 1.9 0.4
24 Ibou Badji POR 2.7 3.9 0.6
25 Justin Minaya POR 2.7 1.4 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.