NBA games

DAL @ LAL

NBA crypto.com Arena ·Final
110–127
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DAL26272730110
LAL32234230127

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAL) / 10 (DAL) games this season
DAL away
home LAL
46% 54%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Luka Doncic S 36 33 13 10
Dereck Lively II S 28 16 11 2
Kyrie Irving S 32 12 5 6
Tim Hardaway Jr. S 28 12 4 1
Derrick Jones Jr. S 27 8 1 0
Grant Williams 26 8 3 2
Jaden Hardy 20 7 0 0
Maxi Kleber 21 6 1 3
Brandon Williams 5 5 1 2
A.J. Lawson 5 2 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
D'Angelo Russell S 36 29 4 3
Anthony Davis S 33 28 12 9
LeBron James S 33 25 8 8
Austin Reaves S 30 14 3 7
Taurean Prince S 21 9 1 1
Jarred Vanderbilt 26 7 9 1
Rui Hachimura 22 6 4 1
Max Christie 14 5 2 0
Christian Wood 17 2 2 1
Skylar Mays 5 2 0 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Dereck Lively II · Layup (2 pts) · 11:45 Q1
"Dereck Lively II makes 3-foot layup (Luka Doncic assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Luka Doncic DAL
11%
2 LeBron James LAL
10%
3 Anthony Davis LAL
10%
4 Austin Reaves LAL
9%
5 Kyrie Irving DAL
9%
6 Taurean Prince LAL
9%
7 Dereck Lively II DAL
8%
8 D'Angelo Russell LAL
8%
9 Maxi Kleber DAL
7%
10 Derrick Jones Jr. DAL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
8%
Dunk
0%
Free Throw
9%
Jumper
18%
Layup
65%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Luka Doncic DAL 31.3 7.6 9.7
2 Kyrie Irving DAL 27.2 6.4 5.8
3 Anthony Davis LAL 25.6 11.5 5.2
4 LeBron James LAL 24.6 5.8 8.8
5 Tim Hardaway Jr. DAL 20.0 3.7 2.6
6 D'Angelo Russell LAL 18.0 2.7 6.1
7 Austin Reaves LAL 17.1 3.6 5.8
8 Derrick Jones Jr. DAL 12.0 4.8 1.3
9 Rui Hachimura LAL 10.9 3.5 1.1
10 Taurean Prince LAL 9.8 3.1 2.0
11 Jaden Hardy DAL 9.4 3.0 1.9
12 Christian Wood LAL 8.9 5.9 1.4
13 Dereck Lively II DAL 8.8 7.2 1.4
14 Dwight Powell DAL 6.6 6.0 2.9
15 Grant Williams DAL 6.6 3.1 1.9
16 Max Christie LAL 6.5 3.7 1.4
17 Jarred Vanderbilt LAL 6.3 4.1 1.6
18 Cam Reddish LAL 6.2 1.8 1.6
19 A.J. Lawson DAL 5.7 2.1 1.0
20 Seth Curry DAL 5.2 1.7 1.0
21 Maxi Kleber DAL 4.7 3.4 1.2
22 Skylar Mays LAL 3.6 1.5 1.4
23 Brandon Williams DAL 3.2 0.8 0.6
24 Richaun Holmes DAL 2.7 2.9 0.5
25 Markieff Morris DAL 2.6 1.5 0.6
26 Jaxson Hayes LAL 2.6 2.1 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.