NBA games

CHA @ NO

NBA Smoothie King Center ·Final
112–132
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CHA36252130112
NO43233036132

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NO) / 10 (CHA) games this season
CHA away
home NO
21% 79%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
LaMelo Ball S 31 29 5 7
Terry Rozier S 32 25 2 4
Miles Bridges S 35 19 4 3
Nick Richards S 31 10 12 2
Cody Martin S 28 7 4 4
P.J. Washington 24 7 5 2
James Bouknight 4 6 0 0
Nate Mensah 13 4 2 0
Nick Smith Jr. 17 3 3 3
Ish Smith 11 2 1 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Brandon Ingram S 34 28 10 10
CJ McCollum S 29 22 5 6
Jordan Hawkins 24 21 6 1
Trey Murphy III 24 18 5 1
Zion Williamson S 27 13 5 9
Herbert Jones S 24 9 1 1
Naji Marshall 17 8 2 1
Larry Nance Jr. 19 7 6 2
Jonas Valanciunas S 25 4 7 0
Jose Alvarado 3 2 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Miles Bridges · Layup (2 pts) · 11:44 Q1
"Miles Bridges makes layup (LaMelo Ball assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 LaMelo Ball CHA
13%
2 Zion Williamson NO
12%
3 Terry Rozier CHA
12%
4 Brandon Ingram NO
11%
5 Miles Bridges CHA
10%
6 Nick Richards CHA
10%
7 CJ McCollum NO
8%
8 Jonas Valanciunas NO
8%
9 Herbert Jones NO
7%
10 Cody Martin CHA
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
18%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
34%
Jumper
28%
Layup
18%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 LaMelo Ball CHA 28.1 5.9 7.1
2 Terry Rozier CHA 24.7 4.4 6.3
3 Zion Williamson NO 24.4 6.7 5.4
4 Miles Bridges CHA 22.5 6.8 3.9
5 Brandon Ingram NO 19.8 4.7 6.2
6 CJ McCollum NO 19.5 4.6 5.6
7 Herbert Jones NO 12.2 3.7 2.0
8 Jonas Valanciunas NO 12.2 8.8 2.0
9 P.J. Washington CHA 12.0 5.3 2.2
10 Trey Murphy III NO 11.8 3.5 2.3
11 Nick Richards CHA 9.4 7.8 1.2
12 Larry Nance Jr. NO 9.2 6.0 2.0
13 Jordan Hawkins NO 8.5 2.0 1.3
14 Cody Martin CHA 8.3 3.0 2.0
15 Nick Smith Jr. CHA 8.1 2.6 1.7
16 Naji Marshall NO 7.3 3.0 1.4
17 Jose Alvarado NO 7.1 2.4 1.8
18 Dyson Daniels NO 6.8 3.4 2.8
19 Frank Ntilikina CHA 4.9 1.8 2.2
20 Ish Smith CHA 4.5 1.9 3.0
21 JT Thor CHA 3.6 2.7 0.5
22 James Bouknight CHA 3.6 1.0 0.6
23 Cody Zeller NO 2.6 2.0 0.9
24 Nate Mensah CHA 2.4 2.6 0.5
25 Leaky Black CHA 2.1 1.2 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.