NBA games

MIA @ TOR

NBA Scotiabank Arena ·Final
97–121
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIA1825302497
TOR41371627121

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (TOR) / 10 (MIA) games this season
MIA away
home TOR
14% 86%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jimmy Butler III S 31 16 5 5
Bam Adebayo S 36 16 5 4
Tyler Herro S 32 16 7 3
Duncan Robinson 21 14 3 1
Caleb Martin 26 10 3 5
Nikola Jovic S 21 10 7 2
Josh Richardson 23 5 1 0
Kyle Lowry S 29 4 2 3
Haywood Highsmith 12 2 3 0
Thomas Bryant 4 2 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Gary Trent Jr. S 31 28 2 0
RJ Barrett S 36 26 8 3
Scottie Barnes S 34 20 5 8
Immanuel Quickley S 30 17 8 9
Dennis Schroder 27 9 1 6
Jontay Porter S 18 6 4 2
Gradey Dick 12 6 0 4
Thaddeus Young 28 5 8 2
Javon Freeman-Liberty 2 2 1 0
Chris Boucher 18 2 7 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Gary Trent Jr. · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:34 Q1
"Gary Trent Jr. makes 27-foot three point jumper (Jontay Porter assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Bam Adebayo MIA
19%
2 RJ Barrett TOR
13%
3 Jimmy Butler III MIA
13%
4 Scottie Barnes TOR
12%
5 Tyler Herro MIA
11%
6 Immanuel Quickley TOR
9%
7 Jontay Porter TOR
9%
8 Nikola Jovic MIA
7%
9 Kyle Lowry MIA
6%
10 Caleb Martin MIA
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
14%
Free Throw
13%
Jumper
44%
Layup
28%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jimmy Butler III MIA 22.4 4.9 5.6
2 Bam Adebayo MIA 22.3 11.2 4.9
3 Tyler Herro MIA 22.3 5.9 5.2
4 RJ Barrett TOR 20.6 6.8 3.9
5 Scottie Barnes TOR 19.3 5.9 4.9
6 Immanuel Quickley TOR 18.0 3.9 4.6
7 Dennis Schroder TOR 16.8 3.2 5.4
8 Duncan Robinson MIA 11.5 2.8 3.5
9 Gary Trent Jr. TOR 10.6 2.4 1.7
10 Josh Richardson MIA 10.5 3.2 2.2
11 Caleb Martin MIA 10.0 5.1 2.1
12 Kyle Lowry MIA 7.8 3.0 3.8
13 Nikola Jovic MIA 7.7 4.1 2.4
14 Haywood Highsmith MIA 6.8 3.6 1.4
15 Chris Boucher TOR 5.7 3.6 0.8
16 Javon Freeman-Liberty TOR 5.6 2.8 1.1
17 Jontay Porter TOR 4.8 3.3 1.7
18 Jalen McDaniels TOR 4.4 1.6 0.7
19 Orlando Robinson MIA 4.2 3.2 1.1
20 Thomas Bryant MIA 3.8 2.8 0.7
21 Cole Swider MIA 3.5 0.8 0.5
22 Thaddeus Young TOR 3.5 2.0 1.6
23 Gradey Dick TOR 2.8 0.8 0.6
24 Garrett Temple TOR 1.8 0.7 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.