NBA games

HOU @ NY

NBA Madison Square Garden ·Final
94–109
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
HOU2521232594
NY23252932109

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NY) / 10 (HOU) games this season
HOU away
home NY
26% 74%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Fred VanVleet S 41 24 3 12
Alperen Sengun S 40 18 10 5
Jalen Green S 29 15 7 1
Jabari Smith Jr. S 31 11 6 1
Dillon Brooks S 40 11 1 0
Jeff Green 21 9 5 0
Amen Thompson 10 4 1 1
Jae'Sean Tate 14 2 2 2
Cam Whitmore 9 0 2 0
Aaron Holiday 4 0 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Julius Randle S 34 31 8 4
Jalen Brunson S 37 30 3 7
OG Anunoby S 43 15 5 0
Quentin Grimes 17 11 3 1
Josh Hart 30 10 14 1
Isaiah Hartenstein S 41 7 11 5
Donte DiVincenzo S 19 5 2 5
Precious Achiuwa 6 0 4 0
Malachi Flynn 1 0 0 0
Ryan Arcidiacono 1 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Dillon Brooks · Layup (2 pts) · 11:08 Q1
"Dillon Brooks makes layup (Fred VanVleet assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Julius Randle NY
14%
2 Alperen Sengun HOU
12%
3 Jalen Brunson NY
11%
4 OG Anunoby NY
10%
5 Dillon Brooks HOU
9%
6 Jalen Green HOU
9%
7 Isaiah Hartenstein NY
8%
8 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU
7%
9 Donte DiVincenzo NY
7%
10 Fred VanVleet HOU
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
6%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
63%
Jumper
17%
Layup
12%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Julius Randle NY 28.6 8.2 5.5
2 Jalen Brunson NY 25.8 3.9 8.0
3 Alperen Sengun HOU 24.5 8.0 4.9
4 Jalen Green HOU 19.2 4.7 3.8
5 Fred VanVleet HOU 18.1 3.4 8.1
6 OG Anunoby NY 15.8 4.7 2.1
7 Donte DiVincenzo NY 15.7 4.1 3.3
8 Dillon Brooks HOU 13.7 3.5 1.7
9 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 12.5 7.8 1.6
10 Isaiah Hartenstein NY 10.4 11.0 3.5
11 Cam Whitmore HOU 9.5 3.6 1.0
12 Josh Hart NY 8.4 6.7 2.5
13 Miles McBride NY 8.1 2.0 1.7
14 Quentin Grimes NY 7.7 2.5 1.3
15 Jeff Green HOU 6.8 2.1 1.1
16 Evan Fournier NY 6.8 1.9 0.9
17 Amen Thompson HOU 6.5 3.5 2.2
18 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 6.0 3.4 1.3
19 Aaron Holiday HOU 4.5 1.6 1.4
20 Nate Williams HOU 4.5 1.6 0.6
21 Precious Achiuwa NY 3.9 3.4 0.6
22 Malachi Flynn NY 3.9 1.5 1.3
23 Jock Landale HOU 2.7 2.1 0.5
24 Boban Marjanovic HOU 2.1 2.1 0.4
25 Jericho Sims NY 2.0 1.3 0.4
26 Ryan Arcidiacono NY 1.5 0.7 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.