NBA games

MIL @ CLE

NBA Rocket Arena ·Final
95–135
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIL2219262895
CLE32344227135

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CLE) / 10 (MIL) games this season
MIL away
home CLE
51% 49%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Damian Lillard S 25 17 2 5
Bobby Portis 21 16 6 3
Jae Crowder 19 15 1 0
Cameron Payne 13 13 0 1
Brook Lopez S 25 11 4 1
Pat Connaughton 14 8 1 1
Andre Jackson Jr. S 23 6 8 0
AJ Green 13 3 2 1
Robin Lopez 7 2 1 1
Khris Middleton S 20 2 2 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Georges Niang 27 33 5 2
Donovan Mitchell S 26 31 5 7
Jarrett Allen S 26 21 13 3
Sam Merrill 22 10 5 5
Isaac Okoro S 26 10 3 7
Craig Porter Jr. 20 9 2 2
Max Strus S 22 6 6 3
Tristan Thompson 20 6 9 3
Dean Wade S 21 5 3 0
Caris LeVert 22 4 3 4

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jarrett Allen · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:47 Q1
"Jarrett Allen makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jarrett Allen CLE
17%
2 Damian Lillard MIL
14%
3 Donovan Mitchell CLE
12%
4 Khris Middleton MIL
11%
5 Brook Lopez MIL
9%
6 Isaac Okoro CLE
8%
7 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL
8%
8 Max Strus CLE
7%
9 Dean Wade CLE
6%
10 Malik Beasley MIL
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
21%
Free Throw
51%
Jumper
13%
Layup
14%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Donovan Mitchell CLE 28.9 4.7 7.4
2 Damian Lillard MIL 23.2 3.5 6.2
3 Caris LeVert CLE 19.9 3.6 5.6
4 Khris Middleton MIL 19.6 3.6 7.0
5 Jarrett Allen CLE 19.2 12.1 5.1
6 Isaac Okoro CLE 12.4 3.3 2.1
7 Max Strus CLE 12.4 3.9 4.0
8 Brook Lopez MIL 12.2 6.1 2.0
9 Sam Merrill CLE 11.1 3.2 2.4
10 Malik Beasley MIL 10.6 2.9 1.4
11 Bobby Portis MIL 10.6 6.0 1.1
12 Georges Niang CLE 9.5 3.7 1.5
13 Jae Crowder MIL 8.7 4.0 1.7
14 Dean Wade CLE 6.9 4.5 1.4
15 Ty Jerome CLE 6.7 2.1 3.7
16 Craig Porter Jr. CLE 6.2 3.0 4.0
17 Cameron Payne MIL 5.7 1.2 1.6
18 Pat Connaughton MIL 5.6 2.1 1.4
19 Tristan Thompson CLE 5.4 4.0 1.5
20 MarJon Beauchamp MIL 4.1 1.9 0.7
21 AJ Green MIL 3.8 1.0 0.6
22 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 3.0 2.2 0.9
23 Chris Livingston MIL 2.7 1.2 0.5
24 Damian Jones CLE 1.9 0.9 0.4
25 Thanasis Antetokounmpo MIL 1.3 0.7 0.4
26 Robin Lopez MIL 1.2 0.4 0.2

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.