NBA games

SA @ BOS

NBA TD Garden ·Final
98–117
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SA2520332098
BOS30402423117

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (BOS) / 10 (SA) games this season
SA away
home BOS
22% 78%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Victor Wembanyama S 27 27 5 1
Devin Vassell S 32 21 2 3
Julian Champagnie S 18 9 5 0
Tre Jones S 27 9 4 11
Malaki Branham 16 8 1 1
Dominick Barlow 21 5 4 0
Jeremy Sochan S 31 5 7 4
Keldon Johnson 23 5 2 1
Mamadi Diakite 5 3 2 1
Doug McDermott 12 2 0 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jayson Tatum S 32 24 5 2
Jrue Holiday S 31 22 4 4
Jaylen Brown S 31 21 7 5
Payton Pritchard 27 12 3 4
Al Horford S 25 9 3 0
Oshae Brissett 13 7 4 1
Sam Hauser 20 7 4 2
Luke Kornet S 30 6 9 4
Neemias Queta 12 6 8 0
JD Davison 3 2 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jayson Tatum · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:40 Q1
"Jayson Tatum makes 5-foot driving floating jump shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Victor Wembanyama SA
17%
2 Jayson Tatum BOS
14%
3 Jaylen Brown BOS
14%
4 Devin Vassell SA
12%
5 Jrue Holiday BOS
10%
6 Jeremy Sochan SA
9%
7 Tre Jones SA
9%
8 Al Horford BOS
8%
9 Julian Champagnie SA
7%
10 Keldon Johnson SA
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
18%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
10%
Jumper
35%
Layup
30%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jayson Tatum BOS 27.5 8.2 5.8
2 Victor Wembanyama SA 26.9 9.0 3.7
3 Jaylen Brown BOS 25.1 6.2 3.8
4 Keldon Johnson SA 18.4 4.6 3.2
5 Devin Vassell SA 16.7 4.0 4.1
6 Jrue Holiday BOS 14.7 5.7 4.3
7 Tre Jones SA 13.1 4.5 5.5
8 Jeremy Sochan SA 13.0 5.5 3.5
9 Al Horford BOS 10.0 6.4 2.9
10 Payton Pritchard BOS 9.9 3.4 3.3
11 Sam Hauser BOS 7.8 4.2 1.0
12 Malaki Branham SA 7.2 2.5 2.2
13 Mamadi Diakite SA 6.9 2.8 0.5
14 Cedi Osman SA 6.8 3.1 1.7
15 Julian Champagnie SA 5.7 2.5 1.4
16 Luke Kornet BOS 5.7 4.2 1.1
17 Doug McDermott SA 5.6 1.3 0.8
18 Dominick Barlow SA 5.6 5.0 1.5
19 Oshae Brissett BOS 5.6 3.7 0.8
20 Neemias Queta BOS 4.5 4.0 0.5
21 Jordan Walsh BOS 4.0 3.4 0.7
22 Blake Wesley SA 3.9 1.8 1.7
23 Devonte' Graham SA 3.4 1.1 1.4
24 Sandro Mamukelashvili SA 3.3 2.2 0.9
25 Lamar Stevens BOS 2.9 1.7 0.5
26 Svi Mykhailiuk BOS 2.9 1.2 0.6
27 Dalano Banton BOS 2.5 1.5 0.6
28 JD Davison BOS 2.5 1.0 1.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.