NBA games

ORL @ ATL

NBA State Farm Arena ·Final
104–106
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ORL26252528104
ATL26232928106

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ATL) / 10 (ORL) games this season
ORL away
home ATL
45% 55%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Paolo Banchero S 38 26 4 4
Wendell Carter Jr. 24 18 5 2
Jalen Suggs S 28 16 4 1
Goga Bitadze S 24 10 10 3
Markelle Fultz 30 10 4 1
Cole Anthony 22 10 1 1
Chuma Okeke S 30 6 7 1
Caleb Houstan S 14 3 1 0
Joe Ingles 20 3 4 3
Jonathan Isaac 10 2 0 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Dejounte Murray S 36 26 5 5
Trae Young S 39 18 3 12
Onyeka Okongwu 27 15 9 0
Bogdan Bogdanovic 24 12 4 1
Clint Capela S 27 12 3 0
Jalen Johnson S 38 10 9 3
Saddiq Bey S 35 7 4 0
Garrison Mathews 13 6 4 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Paolo Banchero · Layup (2 pts) · 10:58 Q1
"Paolo Banchero makes layup"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Paolo Banchero ORL
16%
2 Trae Young ATL
15%
3 Dejounte Murray ATL
11%
4 Jalen Johnson ATL
11%
5 Clint Capela ATL
10%
6 Goga Bitadze ORL
9%
7 Jalen Suggs ORL
7%
8 Caleb Houstan ORL
7%
9 Saddiq Bey ATL
7%
10 Chuma Okeke ORL
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
21%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
15%
Jumper
26%
Layup
35%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Paolo Banchero ORL 29.3 7.8 6.4
2 Trae Young ATL 25.6 3.5 10.6
3 Dejounte Murray ATL 22.9 5.8 3.6
4 Jalen Johnson ATL 17.7 9.8 4.2
5 Jalen Suggs ORL 14.8 4.1 3.1
6 Bogdan Bogdanovic ATL 14.0 3.2 2.4
7 Saddiq Bey ATL 12.4 6.4 1.6
8 Cole Anthony ORL 11.5 4.2 2.7
9 Clint Capela ATL 10.4 10.0 1.1
10 Moritz Wagner ORL 10.1 6.0 1.9
11 Onyeka Okongwu ATL 9.5 6.3 1.3
12 Caleb Houstan ORL 9.3 2.5 1.6
13 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 9.3 5.3 1.9
14 Markelle Fultz ORL 8.8 4.4 4.1
15 Goga Bitadze ORL 7.8 8.4 1.5
16 Chuma Okeke ORL 7.7 4.7 1.5
17 Joe Ingles ORL 7.5 2.6 3.9
18 Jonathan Isaac ORL 6.0 4.5 0.7
19 Trevelin Queen ORL 6.0 2.3 1.5
20 Anthony Black ORL 5.1 2.6 1.9
21 Garrison Mathews ATL 4.2 1.3 0.8
22 Trent Forrest ATL 3.9 2.1 1.5
23 Bruno Fernando ATL 2.9 2.3 0.3
24 AJ Griffin ATL 2.2 0.9 0.3
25 Seth Lundy ATL 2.1 0.8 0.3
26 Patty Mills ATL 2.0 0.9 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.